Game Analysis
Lean – Los Angeles Chargers (+3) over NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants could only manage 3.3 yards per rush last week in Tampa Bay, which actually raised their season average up to 3.2. New York is on pace to have the worst running attack of any team since 2000 according to my metrics. Teams have been able to hurt the Chargers on the ground this year whose rush defense ranks 27th in my numbers, but I don’t expect the Giants to pose much of a problem.
For the second time in three weeks, the Chargers were unlucky to lose a close game at home. Los Angeles outgained Philadelphia 7.5 yppl to 6.1 yppl, but were unfortunate to fumble in Eagles’ territory on the game’s opening drive and couldn’t stop the Eagles on the ground in the game’s closing drive where Philadelphia held the ball for the last 6:44 of the 4th quarter.
This looks like a good match-up for the Chargers’ defense, as that unit has actually been the league’s 3rd best team at getting to the quarterback this year with a sack rate of 9.5% yet opponents are throwing the ball against Los Angeles less often than any other team – so the Chargers pass rush hasn’t gotten very many opportunities. The Giants’ pass-heavy play calling and bad offensive line should be a good matchup for Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, and company to exploit.
Both teams are 0-4 but 5 of their 8 combined games have been decided by a field goal or less – I expect another close game on Sunday where one team finally gets in the win column. I’d lean with the Chargers at +3 points or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.0
31.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.9%
44.0%
-
Sack Rate
3.8%
10.1%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
0.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.6%
17.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.9%
44.2%
-
NYPP
6.9
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
18.8
34.8
-
RB YPR
3.7
5.0
-
Stuff Rate
40.6%
22.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
32.2%
45.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
72.3%
50.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
57.8
66.3
-
Early Down Succ
43.9%
46.2%
-
Succ Rate
42.4%
44.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.9%
49.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.6
31.4
-
Run Ratio
32.0%
52.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.4
27.7
-
Game Control
-4.7
4.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
43.5
34.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.8%
43.0%
-
Sack Rate
5.2%
6.6%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
10.6%
16.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
24.4%
31.4%
-
NYPP
6.0
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
19.0
32.0
-
RB YPR
3.0
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
21.9%
24.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
30.3%
47.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.1%
47.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.1
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
62.5
66.0
-
Early Down Succ
46.9%
48.0%
-
Succ Rate
43.7%
45.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
27.1%
41.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.0%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.5
29.8
-
Run Ratio
29.9%
48.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.6
29.6
-
Game Control
-6.4
6.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DEN |
21 – 24 L |
-6.6 |
47.1% /
50.0% |
2.9% /
12.5% |
3.0% /
3.6% |
5.4 /
5.7 |
27.3% /
40.5% |
31.8% /
18.9% |
2.9 /
3.8 |
56 /
69 |
42.9% /
44.2% |
39.3% /
44.9% |
27.7% /
47.8% |
4.4 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
39.3% /
53.6% |
31.6 /
31.8 |
| 2 |
MIA |
17 – 19 L |
2.0 |
62.5% /
44.4% |
2.5% /
5.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.1 /
6.3 |
28.6% /
36.4% |
50.0% /
30.3% |
3.1 /
3.4 |
54 /
69 |
58.7% /
43.4% |
53.7% /
40.6% |
28.6% /
38.9% |
6.8 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.9% /
47.8% |
24.9 /
26.4 |
| 3 |
KC |
10 – 24 L |
-8.0 |
35.7% /
34.6% |
4.8% /
19.2% |
7.5% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
4.7 |
34.6% /
56.0% |
34.6% /
20.0% |
4.0 /
7.6 |
68 /
51 |
34.5% /
50.0% |
35.3% /
45.1% |
39.1% /
55.0% |
4.9 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.2% /
49.0% |
22.8 /
30.5 |
| 4 |
PHI |
24 – 26 L |
-6.2 |
42.5% /
46.9% |
5.0% /
3.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.6 /
7.5 |
38.5% /
47.7% |
46.2% /
20.5% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
53 /
76 |
39.5% /
47.3% |
41.5% /
47.4% |
68.3% /
56.1% |
7.5 /
6.0 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
24.5% /
57.9% |
22.2 /
22.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DAL |
3 – 19 L |
-9.1 |
48.8% /
48.7% |
7.3% /
2.6% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
6.7 |
23.1% /
54.8% |
7.7% /
19.4% |
2.8 /
4.2 |
54 /
70 |
46.2% /
50.9% |
42.6% /
51.4% |
27.8% /
37.0% |
4.3 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
24.1% /
44.3% |
16.0 /
29.4 |
| 2 |
DET |
10 – 24 L |
-7.5 |
37.8% /
33.3% |
13.5% /
12.5% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
5.0 |
38.9% /
43.8% |
27.8% /
34.4% |
3.4 /
4.3 |
55 /
56 |
41.5% /
37.5% |
38.2% /
39.3% |
30.0% /
42.4% |
4.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
32.7% /
57.1% |
24.3 /
37.4 |
| 3 |
@PHI |
24 – 27 L |
-4.0 |
59.6% /
41.2% |
0.0% /
8.8% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
4.7 |
23.5% /
48.7% |
23.5% /
23.1% |
2.9 /
5.0 |
64 /
73 |
55.8% /
47.3% |
50.0% /
45.2% |
23.4% /
30.4% |
6.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
26.6% /
53.4% |
34.6 /
21.5 |
| 4 |
@TB |
23 – 25 L |
-5.2 |
49.0% /
48.7% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
8.3 |
35.7% /
42.3% |
28.6% /
19.2% |
3.3 /
4.3 |
77 /
65 |
44.1% /
56.3% |
44.2% /
46.2% |
27.4% /
57.3% |
4.9 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
40.0% |
27.7 /
29.9 |
Los Angeles Chargers
@ 
New York Giants