Los Angeles Chargers @

New Orleans Saints

Mon, Oct 12
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 477
Odds: New Orleans Saints -7, Total: 50

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Strong Opinion – Under (50.5) – NEW ORLEANS (-7) over LA Chargers

The Saints have started slow on defense but our metrics suggest that defensive performance through the first 4 games can only explain about 20% of performance the rest of the season and it’s easy to see why this is the case once you look into the numbers. New Orleans have given up 244 yards on defensive pass interference this year, more than twice the second-highest team, which is not going to continue to that level going forward even after accounting for their aggressive style. Despite conceding 30 points per game, the Saints actually rank 6th in yards per play allowed (5.2) and they entered the season as our top-rated defense. New Orleans has been playing without edge rusher Marcus Davenport (50 pressures in 2019), but he should return this week. The Saints will also get Pro Bowl CB Marshon Lattimore back in uniform on Sunday after he was held out of the last game with a hamstring injury.

I do not expect Justin Herbert’s Chargers to move the ball against a New Orleans defense destined to improve. The Chargers have moved the ball under Herbert than they’re likely to moving forward due to third down variance. Herbert is 21 of 26 on third down pasing, leading the league in yards per attempt (11.7) while ranking fourth in first down percentage (54%), which will certainly regress in the future. The Saints have surrendered a conversion on 49% of third downs this season, compared to 36% in 2019, so they’ve suffered negative variance in that important category. The New Orleans’ defense they will likely be able to get off the field more on Monday night. Herbert is also averaging a ridiculous 8.8 yppp when facing pressure, which is completely unsustainable going forward. Herbert’s favorite receiving option Keenan Allen, who is second in targets since the rookie QB took over under center, will be contained by nickelback Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who is allowing only 0.77 yards per slot cover snap (3rd).

New Orleans’ offense won’t have the easiest time in this game either. Alvin Kamara leads all RBs in targets, and is averaging 3.45 yards per route run, but the Chargers are surrendering less than 4 yards per target to opposing running backs. Drew Brees is coming off his best downfield passing performance of 2020, finishing 9 of 12 for 174 yards and a touchdown on passes with 10+ air yards. Brees thought he’d get Michael Thomas back on the field this week but Thomas is out for disciplinary reasons and will have to look for less talented receiving options with Kamara possibly bottled up.

Our model favors the Saints by 10.2 points, with a predicted total of 46.8 points. The value is still on the Saints with Thomas out but the Chargers apply to a 168-99-7 ATS situation. The Under is a Strong Opinion at 50 points or less and New Orleans is part of our Best Bet Teaser (-2) with Cleveland (+7.5), which we played when Cleveland was a 1.5 point underdog early in the week.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chargers
  • Saints
LAC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.3 39.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.3% 46.2%
  • Sack Rate 5.3% 5.5%
  • Int Rate 1.7% 0.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 22.0% 11.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 37.1% 24.5%
  • NYPP 7.1 5.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 35.3 23.7
  • RB YPR 4.5 4.0
  • Stuff Rate 17.2% 21.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 55.2% 46.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 29.5% 46.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.6




Game

  • All Snaps 74.7 62.7
  • Early Down Succ 52.6% 47.9%
  • Succ Rate 51.0% 45.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 33.3% 32.1%
  • Yards Per Play 5.7 5.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.4% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.8 28.5
  • Run Ratio 47.2% 38.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 24.1 31.2
  • Game Control -1.1 1.1
 
  • Points 17.3 19.0
Share This