Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – LA Chargers (+3.5) over NEW ENGLAND

Strong Opinion – Demario Douglas (NE) UNDER 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at -125 or better

• Drake Maye averaged 9.1 air yards per attempt (5th) and his shortcoming was against zone coverage – particularly with two-high safeties to take away to deep ball. New England’s offense ranked 29th relatively against zone-coverage compared to man and Maye’s yppp against two-high was only 81% of his yppp versus single-high coverage (31st). Maye will struggle against a Chargers defense with an 84% zone coverage rate (4th-highest) and a 61% two-high safety rate (5th-highest).
• Maye’s top option underneath is WR Steffon Diggs, who has a 67% success rate (2nd). However, Diggs will be limited on the inside across from Los Angeles nickelback Tarheeb Still, who is conceding just 0.84 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th).
• Maye’s other option is TE Hunter Henry, who is averaging 1.67 yards per route run (6th). The Chargers are surrendering 0.39 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (27th) but I expect defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to deploy All-Pro S Derwin James to shadow Henry on high-leverage downs.
• Maye leads the NFL with 61 scrambles, but he will be shut down as a runner as Los Angeles ranks 2nd in EPA per play allowed on scrambles.
• The Chargers ranked 30th in pass blocking efficiency, but the Patriots do not have the defensive front to take over the game. New England’s defense ranked 31st in pressure rate on standard pass rushes.
• The Patriots did recently get back interior defender Milton Williams, but New England’s defense had only a 36% pressure rate (20th) heading into week 11 when Williams went down with a high-ankle sprain. The Patriots have the worst pass rush of the AFC playoff teams.
• Los Angeles will be getting back left tackle Jamaree Salyer, who has been out since before Christmas. Salyer has been much better filling in for Joe Alt than Austin Deculus, as he is allowing a 7.0% pressure rate while Deculus has surrendered an 11.4% pressure rate.
• Justin Herbert has been protecting the ball with a 2.3% Turnover Worthy Play Rate (4th) despite the pass protection this season so turnovers should not be a problem.
• The Patriots were +2.4% net success rate (7th) and the Chargers were +2.7% net success rate (6th), not including week 18, but Los Angeles played a schedule 1.9 points per game harder than New England by our numbers.
• Our model favors the Patriots by 3.6 (with a predicted total of 46.2), so the line is fair, but the matchups favor the Chargers and New England applies to a 7-39-1 ATS playoff situation (0-28-1 since 1997). This is also Drake Maye’s first playoff start and favorites with a quarterback making his first playoff start are just 7-20-1 ATS as favorites (against a team with a quarterback with playoff experience).

The Chargers are a Strong Opinion at +3.5 -120 odds or better.