Game Analysis

Lean – LA Chargers (-4) over MIAMI

Lean – Over (43.5)

• Down three starters on the offensive line, the Chargers rank 31st in pass blocking efficiency during the last two weeks.
• I expect the Chargers not to put the depleted offensive line in pure dropback situations too often, instead focusing on the ground game versus a Dolphins defense surrendering 0.06 EPA/rush (29th). Los Angeles offensive coordinator Greg Roman specifically punishes overly dynamic fronts like Miami. The more the defense shifts and disguises, the more Roman’s motion and QB run game can manipulate the front into overcommitting or losing run fits.
• Chargers WR Quentin Johnston has 4 receptions with at least 20 air yards (7th), and I expect Justin Herbert to look vertical when the Dolphins overcommit to the ground game and leave space deep down the field. Miami’s defense has the least talented cornerbacks in the NFL and is allowing 0.51 EPA/target to opposing wide receivers (30th).
• Tua Tagovailoa matched his season average last week with 5.9 yppp in his first game without Tyreek Hill, but it will be a step up in class on Sunday as the Panthers defense is allowing 6.5 yppp (21st) while the Chargers defense is allowing 5.1 yppp (3rd).
• Dolphins’ backup right tackle Larry Borom will struggle across from edge defender Tuli Tuipulotu, who ranks 8th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Los Angeles also bolstered the pass rush this week, trading for edge defender Odafe Oweh, who was leading the Ravens with 12 pressures. The Chargers sent S Alohi Gilman back in the trade because S Elijah Molden is back from injury.
• Miami RB De’Von Achane has 33 targets (2nd), but the screen game will be shut down as the Chargers are allowing only a 29% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (5th).
• Our model favors the Chargers by 5.3 points, with a predicted total of 45.4 points, and Miami is just 3-16 ATS when facing a .500 or better team and not getting at least 6 points under coach Mike McDaniel.