Game Analysis

LAS VEGAS (-3) vs LA Chargers

Lean – Under (34.5)

· Justin Herbert’s 2023 season is over as he will undergo surgery to repair a fracture to his index finger on his right throwing hand. The Chargers offense did not improve by changing coordinators from Joe Lombardi to Kellen Moore. Los Angeles had a 42.4% success rate in the first 14 weeks last year and they have a 41.9% success rate this season.

· To be fair, center Corey Linsley being sidelined has crippled the pass protection. The Chargers are surrendering a league-high 12.1% unblocked pressure rate.

· Easton Stick will take over under center and he is 5.5 points worse than Herbert by our numbers. Los Angeles should see what they have in Stick rather than using the ground games versus a Las Vegas rush defense that ranks 8th according to our metrics.

· Chargers slot WR Keenan Allen has a 59% success rate (7th) but he is out on Thursday night. Los Angeles WR Josh Palmer will suit up for his first game since October.

· Chargers RT Trey Pipkins has surrendered 45 pressures (2nd-most) and he will struggle against edge defender Maxx Crosby, who has 13.5 sacks (3rd).

· Las Vegas head coach Antonio Pierce hinted at making a change at quarterback after the offense got shut out last week. Jimmy Garoppolo was benched earlier this year, but he averaged 6.1 yppp compared to Aidan O’Connell’s 5.5 yppp. However, it looks like Pierce will stick with the rookie quarterback – although possibly on a short leash.

· The Raiders’ offensive line will likely be without starting C Andre James and LT Kolton Miller, who ranks 5th in pass-blocking efficiency. Chargers edge rusher Khalil Mack leads the NFL with 15.0 sacks, and he will take advantage of backup tackle Thayer Munford.

· Las Vegas All-Pro running back Josh Jacobs is likely out after suffering a thigh injury in the fourth quarter against the Vikings, but Las Vegas should stick with the run versus a Chargers rush defense ranked 29th by our metrics.

· Our model favors the Raiders by 1.2 points, with a predicted total of 31.6 points.