Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (50.5) – LAS VEGAS (+2.5/+1.5) over LA Chargers

· Justin Herbert has been pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on a league-high 28% of his dropbacks and it skyrockets from there without Pro Bowl center Corey Linsley on the field. Herbert has a 36% pressure rate in 2.5 seconds or less without Linsley, who leads the league in pass blocking efficiency but endured a concussion last week and likely will miss this game.

· Chargers right tackle Trey Pipkins surrendered 4 pressures this week and he will struggle versus edge defender Maxx Crosby, who is one of the best pass-rushers in the league and just had two sacks in the win against the Seahawks.

· Herbert threw for a career-low 3.8 air yards per attempt last week due to his terrible offensive line and having no deep threat without WR Mike Williams, who re-aggravated a right high ankle sprain in week 11.

· Las Vegas running back Josh Jacobs ran for 229 yards and two touchdowns last week. I expect Jacobs to pick up right where he left off on Sunday against a Los Angeles defense surrendering a league-high 5.4 yards per rush.

· Derek Carr is settling into life without TE Darren Waller and WR Hunter Renfrow as he’s averaged 7.9 yppp in two road victories the last two weeks.

· The Raiders don’t deserve to be underdogs at home in this game. Las Vegas has a net EPA/play 0.043 higher than the Chargers but they are underdogs because of the difference in their win-loss records, which is subject to variance.

· Our model favors the Raiders by 1.9 points, with a predicted total of just 44.5 points.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 49 points or more and the Raiders (+8.5) are part of a 3-Star 6-point Teaser play with Jacksonville (+7.5). That Teaser is now out of range (need +7.5 or more on both teams) but the Raiders can be played as a 1-Star Best Bet at +1 or more if you were not able to play the 3-Star Teaser.