Los Angeles Chargers @

Las Vegas Raiders

Sun, Jan 9
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 481
Odds: Las Vegas Raiders +3, Total: 49

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **Under (50) – LA Chargers (-3) vs LAS VEGAS

There’s been plenty of attention on Justin Herbert’s highlight worthy deep throws this year, but offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi is actually keeping the the Chargers offense from being explosive. Herbert has an average depth of target of just 7.4 yards downfield for the season and only 32.3% of his pass attempts traveled past the sticks last week. WR Mike Williams is the one predominant vertical threat, hauling in 11 receptions with 20+ air yards (7th), but Raiders CB Casey Hayward is conceding only one reception every 22.5 cover snaps, best in the NFL. Las Vegas nickelback Nate Hobbs was arrested on a misdemeanor charge of DUI early Monday morning, but the rookie is expected to play Sunday night according to interim coach Rich Bisaccia and he is conceding just 0.78 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd). Hobbs will limit Chargers inside WR Keenan Allen, who is averaging 1.58 yards per route run in the slot (8th).

Derek Carr is targeting RBs on 25% of passes (4th) but the Chargers have conceded only 447 receiving yards to opposing running backs out of the backfield (2nd). Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow is averaging 1.84 yards per route run in the slot (5th) but he will be contained across from nickelback Chris Harris, who is allowing just 0.86 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd). Tight end Darren Waller is averaging 1.86 yards per route run (7th) and he could be back in uniform this week after missing the last 5 games, but Carr could struggle to get him the ball with little time in the pocket. Edge defender Joey Bosa has 64 pressures (7th) and Raiders RT Brandon Parker ranks last in pass blocking efficiency out of 53 qualifying tackles.

Our model favors the Chargers by 1.0 points, with a predicted total of 45.4 points, and the Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 49 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chargers
  • Raiders
LAC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.88 34.63
  • Succ Pass Plays 51.9% 47.3%
  • Sack Rate 4.4% 5.8%
  • Int Rate 2.1% 2.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.4% 19.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 33.5% 42.0%
  • NYPP 6.97 6.48



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.13 29.63
  • RB YPR 4.05 4.43
  • Stuff Rate 21.4% 19.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.2% 57.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.6% 37.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.35 4.62




Game

  • All Snaps 65.00 64.25
  • Early Down Succ 53.7% 54.5%
  • Succ Rate 51.6% 52.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 35.2% 40.3%
  • Yards Per Play 5.96 5.62
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.03 29.18
  • Run Ratio 38.7% 46.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 1.65 -1.65
 
  • Points 27.63 26.50
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