Game Analysis

KANSAS CITY (-5.5) vs LA Chargers

· Travis Kelce’s 7 receptions on hitch routes last Thursday night was the most of any receiver in the last five seasons, but I do not think those will be there for the All-Pro tight end in this game.

· The Chargers are conceding -0.05 EPA/target to tight ends (7th) and linebacker Eric Kendricks is forcing 0.7 incompletions per game (3rd).

· Kansas City’s wide receivers won’t be able to get early route separation and Kelce will likely be limited. Patrick Mahomes leads the league with 192 scramble yards this year and he will have to continue using his legs this week. Mahomes is averaging 7.6 yards per carry against Brandon Staley’s defense in his last four games versus the Chargers.

· We saw the Chargers go with just a 47.4% pass rate in week 1 when offensive coordinator Kellen Moore thought the best way to attack the Dolphins was on the ground. I could see Moore making a similar decision on Sunday as the Chiefs’ defense ranks 29th in EPA/rush compared to 3rd in EPA/dropback.

· Kansas City nickelback Trent McDuffie is conceding 0.79 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th) and he will contain WR Keenan Allen, whose 0.68 EPA/target ranks 8th.

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 5.5 points, with a predicted total of 46.3 points.