Los Angeles Chargers @

Kansas City Chiefs

Thu, Sep 15
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 103
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -4, Total: 54

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Kansas City Team Total Under (28.5 -115)

Lean – LA Chargers (+4) over KANSAS CITY

· We had Kansas City with the best offense in the league coming into the season but I’m not going to get carried away after the 44 points they put up in Arizona due to the absurd game plan they faced.

· The Cardinals played one-high safety on 31 snaps, 4th-most the Chiefs have seen since the start of the 2021 season. You just can’t give Patrick Mahomes space in the secondary. He showed us last year when the Raiders were basically the only defense to refuse to come out of their one-high coverages against Kansas City. Mahomes averaged 7.9 yppp in two games versus Las Vegas in 2021 and he lit up Arizona’s favorable defensive scheme last week.

· Mahomes was blitzed on over half of his dropbacks (54%) last week for the first time in his career. It seems every defensive coach except Arizona’s Vance Joseph knows you can’t blitz the Chiefs. Mahomes has seen just a 19% blitz rate during the last four seasons. Philip Rivers has the next lowest blitz rate among qualifying QBs at 24%.

· Mahomes killed the Cardinals for 9.2 yppp and five touchdowns in week 1, but I’m confident Chargers head coach Brandon Staley will not be blitzing at a high rate and will give Mahomes majority two-high looks. 

· Los Angeles edge rusher Khalil Mack had an excellent debut for his new team with 3 sacks and he will be a load for LT Orlando Brown, who allowed 5 pressures last Sunday.

· Chargers nickelback Bryce Callahan conceded only 0.62 yards per cover snap in the slot last week and he will control JuJu Smith-Schuster (79 receiving yards versus the Cardinals) on the inside.

· There’s a chance Los Angeles will have Pro Bowl cornerback JC Jackson making his debut on Thursday night. He will go through pre-game warmups and then be a game-time decision. Jackson is worth a half point to the Chargers defense by our numbers. 

· Given Justin Herbert’s ability, I’m not sure the loss of Keenan Allen would be massive for some offensive schemes, but the Chargers certainly think it is and it affects the play calling. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi called a 50% run rate in the fourth quarter, not including the last drive when they were just trying to kill the clock with runs and kneels. Lombardi’s conservativeness has me valuing the loss of Allen at 0.6 points.

· Kansas City Pro Bowl DT Chris Jones tallied five pressures and batted a pass last week, but he will be contained by Chargers center Corey Linsley, who ranked 2nd in pass rushing efficiency last season.

· Our model has the Chiefs by only 3.4 points with a predicted total of 49.6 points, which projects Kansas City at 26.5 points.

Kansas City’s Team Total Under 28.5 is a Strong Opinion up to -120 odds.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chargers
  • Chiefs


  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00


  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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