Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: The line has moved this game out of Best Bet range, but the Under is a Strong Opinion at 54.5 points (Best Bet at 55 or more).

2-Star Best Bet – UNDER (56) – KANSAS CITY (-6.5) vs LA Chargers

Tyreek Hill had just 14 receiving yards on 4 targets last week with the Ravens determined to not get beat deep. Brandon Staley’s defense has a similar philosophy as 74% of Dak Prescott’s throws were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage against the Chargers. Patrick Mahomes was still effective against the Ravens with Hill a non-factor because Travis Kelce was open underneath. Kelce had 109 receiving yards and a touchdown in Baltimore, but it will be much tougher to find space against Chargers’ Derwin James, who is one of the league’s top safeties. Kelce averaged just 58 receiving yards per game versus the Chargers in 2019, the last season James was healthy.

Edge defender Joey Bosa led the NFL with 5.1 pressures per game last year and will dominate across from RT Lucas Niang, who ranks 51st out of 58 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency.

Justin Herbert likely won’t have much time in the pocket to look downfield with RT Bryan Bulaga out at least a couple more weeks after injuring his back in the third quarter of week 1. Backup tackle Storm Norton surrendered 10 pressures last week and he will struggle again when edge defender Chris Jones (60 pressures last year) is lined up across from him.

Our model favors the Chiefs by 6.8 points, with a predicted total of 51.2 points. The Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 55.5 or more and a 1-Star play Under 55 (Strong Opinion Under 54.5 points).

Team Stats
Game Log

Chargers
Chiefs

LAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 46.0 25.5
Succ Pass Plays 54.3% 54.9%
Sack Rate 4.4% 5.7%
Int Rate 3.5% 1.9%
Deep Pass Rate 16.9% 10.8%
Big Pass Yards 30.5% 26.9%
NYPP 7.4 7.2

Rush

Rush Plays 24.0 29.0
RB YPR 4.3 5.5
Stuff Rate 26.9% 12.5%
Succ Rush Plays 47.0% 67.4%
Big Rush Yards 40.1% 38.2%
Yards Per Rush 4.1 5.5

Game

All Snaps 70.0 54.5
Early Down Succ 50.1% 66.3%
Succ Rate 51.6% 61.9%
Big Yards Rate 32.5% 32.0%
Yards Per Play 6.2 6.3
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.9 29.0
Run Ratio 33.9% 53.4%
Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
Game Control -0.4 0.4

Points 18.5 18.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@WAS	20 – 16 W	2.0	55.1% / 40.9%	4.1% / 4.5%	2.1% / 0.0%	6.9 / 6.1	41.4% / 70.4%	37.9% / 18.5%	3.1 / 4.7	78 / 49	43.9% / 63.2%	50.0% / 57.1%	24.1% / 23.4%	5.5 / 5.3	1.3% / 2.0%	37.2% / 55.1%	0.0 / 0.0
2	DAL	17 – 20 L	-2.9	53.5% / 69.0%	4.7% / 6.9%	4.9% / 3.7%	7.9 / 8.2	52.6% / 64.5%	15.8% / 6.5%	5.0 / 6.4	62 / 60	56.3% / 69.4%	53.2% / 66.7%	40.9% / 40.7%	7.0 / 7.3	0.0% / 0.0%	30.6% / 51.7%	0.0 / 0.0

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CLV	33 – 29 W	-5.3	60.5% / 60.0%	5.3% / 6.7%	0.0% / 3.6%	8.9 / 10.7	56.5% / 76.0%	21.7% / 8.0%	3.2 / 6.1	61 / 55	57.4% / 72.7%	59.0% / 67.3%	36.3% / 48.3%	6.7 / 8.6	0.0% / 1.8%	37.7% / 45.5%	0.0 / 0.0
2	@BLT	35 – 36 L	16.8	64.5% / 59.3%	0.0% / 3.7%	3.2% / 7.7%	11.1 / 8.9	50.0% / 68.3%	22.2% / 17.1%	3.4 / 6.1	49 / 68	65.1% / 66.1%	59.2% / 64.7%	43.7% / 48.6%	8.3 / 7.2	2.0% / 0.0%	36.7% / 60.3%	0.0 / 0.0

Los Angeles Chargers @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Sep 26

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis