Game Analysis
KANSAS CITY (-3.5) vs LA Chargers
This would seem to be a dream matchup for the Chargers as they attempt to match the Chiefs at 11 wins. Kansas City played a long, physical game against the Ravens last week and teams playing on Thursday night immediately following overtime are just 5-21 straight up and 3-23 ATS (as long as their opponent is not also off an OT game). Favorites in that situation are just 3-7 straight up and 0-10 ATS.
This was looking like a game in which the matchup favored the Chargers too, but that may have changed with Eric Berry expected to make his season debut. The Chargers target their running backs at the 3rd-highest rate in the league and have the 7th-rated ground game. The Chiefs, meanwhile, allow a league-worst 8.1 yards per target to opposing running backs and have the worst rush defense in the NFL. Normally I would expect the Los Angeles backfield to dominate this game but Austin Ekler is doubtful to play and Melvin Gordon will be a game-time decision so we may see Justin Jackson shoulder the load. Eric Berry would be worth about a point if he’s back at full health and not on a limited snap count and he would fix a lot of the problems the Chiefs have had against opposing running back since he was injured early last season.
On the other side of the ball, the Chargers also have a favorable matchup. Tyreek Hill likely won’t be 100% while nursing a heel injury and Travis Kelce, second among tight ends in both targets (112) and yards per route run (2.46), is likely to have a subpar outing versus a Los Angeles defense conceding a league-best 5.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends. The Chiefs will need 3rd-string running back Damien Williams to have a breakout game versus a Chargers defense ranked 23rd against the run and allowing 7.4 yards per target to opposing running backs (26th) while playing without Denzel Perryman.
The Chiefs are 11-5 ATS in night games at Arrowhead since 2000, but it will be an uphill battle in this matchup if Melvin Gordon is able to suit up. Our model favors the Chiefs by 5.8 points but playing on Thursday after an overtime game is worth a couple of points against them. I’ll pass on the side and the total (our model projects 54 points).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.2
35.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.0%
47.8%
-
Sack Rate
5.7%
7.0%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.2%
16.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.0%
43.5%
-
NYPP
8.3
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.2
24.8
-
RB YPR
4.7
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
22.8%
21.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.1%
50.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
53.5%
40.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
59.5
60.3
-
Early Down Succ
53.7%
50.2%
-
Succ Rate
50.3%
48.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.5%
44.4%
-
Yards Per Play
6.6
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.3
29.4
-
Run Ratio
44.4%
41.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.2
27.8
-
Game Control
3.9
-3.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.5
42.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
58.0%
46.8%
-
Sack Rate
4.7%
8.2%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.8%
21.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
50.2%
42.0%
-
NYPP
8.8
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.8
25.5
-
RB YPR
4.5
4.8
-
Stuff Rate
19.3%
17.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.3%
57.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.3%
41.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
63.3
67.5
-
Early Down Succ
55.6%
52.1%
-
Succ Rate
54.0%
51.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
50.6%
43.2%
-
Yards Per Play
7.0
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.5
27.4
-
Run Ratio
41.1%
37.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.5
25.4
-
Game Control
6.9
-6.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
KC |
28 – 38 L |
-9.6 |
55.8% /
46.4% |
1.9% /
3.6% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
9.1 |
59.1% /
59.3% |
18.2% /
25.9% |
5.6 /
3.9 |
74 /
55 |
61.3% /
55.6% |
56.8% /
52.7% |
45.1% /
66.0% |
7.3 /
6.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
29.7% /
49.1% |
20.1 /
29.1 |
| 2 |
@BUF |
31 – 20 W |
14.5 |
65.5% /
36.8% |
6.9% /
13.2% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
8.3 /
5.5 |
33.3% /
54.5% |
40.7% /
31.8% |
4.1 /
3.8 |
56 /
60 |
55.6% /
45.7% |
50.0% /
43.3% |
44.0% /
59.0% |
6.3 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.2% /
36.7% |
36.5 /
26.7 |
| 3 |
@LA |
23 – 35 L |
-9.0 |
40.6% /
59.5% |
6.3% /
2.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
6.7 /
9.5 |
60.0% /
62.2% |
30.0% /
10.8% |
7.1 /
4.7 |
52 /
74 |
45.9% /
62.7% |
48.1% /
60.8% |
62.9% /
45.5% |
6.8 /
7.1 |
3.8% /
1.4% |
38.5% /
50.0% |
26.6 /
22.8 |
| 4 |
SF |
29 – 27 W |
-2.8 |
47.5% /
52.6% |
2.5% /
2.6% |
2.6% /
5.4% |
6.1 /
7.6 |
35.5% /
38.1% |
12.9% /
28.6% |
4.2 /
3.6 |
71 /
59 |
50.0% /
48.9% |
42.3% /
47.5% |
47.4% /
46.4% |
5.2 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.7% /
35.6% |
41.3 /
22.5 |
| 5 |
OAK |
26 – 10 W |
9.9 |
78.3% /
68.0% |
4.3% /
12.0% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
14.5 /
9.9 |
27.3% /
61.5% |
30.3% /
23.1% |
2.5 /
3.2 |
56 /
38 |
45.5% /
55.6% |
48.2% /
65.8% |
43.4% /
59.5% |
7.4 /
7.6 |
0.0% /
2.6% |
58.9% /
34.2% |
35.3 /
21.2 |
| 6 |
@CLE |
38 – 14 W |
14.7 |
45.5% /
39.2% |
4.5% /
9.8% |
4.8% /
4.3% |
9.2 /
4.2 |
63.2% /
42.9% |
13.2% /
33.3% |
6.5 /
4.9 |
60 /
72 |
68.8% /
41.5% |
56.7% /
40.3% |
69.2% /
50.2% |
7.5 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
63.3% /
29.2% |
30.5 /
34.2 |
| 7 |
TEN |
20 – 19 W |
4.9 |
57.1% /
58.8% |
7.1% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
10.6 /
6.6 |
35.3% /
48.5% |
17.6% /
18.2% |
2.8 /
5.0 |
45 /
67 |
52.9% /
51.0% |
48.9% /
53.7% |
55.4% /
33.1% |
7.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.8% /
49.3% |
29.0 /
27.5 |
| 9 |
@SEA |
25 – 17 W |
5.4 |
42.9% /
39.0% |
7.1% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
7.7 /
4.9 |
50.0% /
62.5% |
31.8% /
21.9% |
7.3 /
4.8 |
50 /
73 |
51.2% /
52.7% |
46.0% /
49.3% |
69.9% /
30.3% |
7.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.0% /
43.8% |
21.2 /
25.1 |
| 10 |
@OAK |
20 – 6 W |
5.9 |
48.1% /
39.0% |
3.7% /
9.8% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
5.0 |
57.7% /
43.5% |
19.2% /
21.7% |
4.3 /
5.0 |
53 /
64 |
59.5% /
45.5% |
52.8% /
40.6% |
47.5% /
45.3% |
6.3 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
49.1% /
35.9% |
21.6 /
23.1 |
| 11 |
DEN |
22 – 23 L |
3.5 |
47.8% /
46.9% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
6.8 |
38.5% /
57.9% |
23.1% /
15.8% |
3.7 /
5.7 |
72 /
51 |
40.4% /
56.4% |
44.4% /
51.0% |
52.8% /
45.5% |
6.7 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.1% /
37.3% |
19.7 /
32.7 |
| 12 |
ARI |
45 – 10 W |
12.8 |
63.9% /
38.1% |
11.1% /
9.5% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
6.6 /
4.1 |
59.4% /
28.0% |
12.5% /
24.0% |
5.6 /
2.5 |
68 /
46 |
67.9% /
35.5% |
61.8% /
32.6% |
38.7% /
32.0% |
6.1 /
3.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
54.3% |
36.2 /
32.6 |
| 13 |
@PIT |
33 – 30 W |
-6.8 |
57.9% /
50.0% |
5.3% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
7.5 /
5.9 |
31.8% /
52.9% |
27.3% /
5.9% |
3.9 /
3.8 |
60 /
63 |
46.9% /
53.8% |
48.3% /
50.8% |
36.1% /
28.0% |
6.2 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.7% /
27.0% |
21.7 /
29.1 |
| 14 |
CIN |
26 – 21 W |
6.9 |
51.6% /
46.7% |
6.5% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
5.0 |
48.0% /
43.8% |
20.0% /
21.9% |
3.4 /
4.5 |
56 /
62 |
52.4% /
47.9% |
50.0% /
45.2% |
31.6% /
36.6% |
5.1 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
51.6% |
27.3 /
34.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LAC |
38 – 28 W |
9.6 |
46.4% /
55.8% |
3.6% /
1.9% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
9.1 /
8.0 |
59.3% /
59.1% |
25.9% /
18.2% |
3.9 /
5.6 |
55 /
74 |
55.6% /
61.3% |
52.7% /
56.8% |
66.0% /
45.1% |
6.6 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
49.1% /
29.7% |
29.1 /
20.1 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
42 – 37 W |
9.7 |
69.0% /
50.8% |
3.4% /
1.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.1 /
7.2 |
44.4% /
38.5% |
14.8% /
23.1% |
4.8 /
2.5 |
56 /
74 |
63.8% /
51.7% |
57.1% /
48.6% |
56.1% /
35.2% |
8.1 /
6.4 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
48.2% /
17.6% |
30.3 /
21.8 |
| 3 |
SF |
38 – 27 W |
13.8 |
55.0% /
44.1% |
5.0% /
11.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
6.7 |
46.7% /
51.7% |
16.7% /
24.1% |
2.6 /
6.1 |
70 /
63 |
51.9% /
50.0% |
51.4% /
47.6% |
28.2% /
42.9% |
5.5 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
46.0% |
26.8 /
22.8 |
| 4 |
@DEN |
27 – 23 W |
-1.9 |
50.0% /
32.4% |
2.2% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
6.6 /
6.1 |
66.7% /
72.7% |
14.8% /
18.2% |
5.3 /
7.2 |
73 /
59 |
59.3% /
53.3% |
56.2% /
47.5% |
48.8% /
59.7% |
6.1 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
37.3% |
30.6 /
24.2 |
| 5 |
JAC |
30 – 14 W |
14.4 |
87.0% /
73.7% |
4.3% /
13.2% |
9.1% /
12.1% |
13.0 /
10.6 |
28.1% /
70.6% |
25.0% /
5.9% |
4.0 /
5.9 |
55 /
55 |
45.5% /
48.4% |
52.7% /
72.7% |
49.3% /
49.8% |
7.7 /
9.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
58.2% /
30.9% |
21.3 /
28.3 |
| 6 |
@NE |
40 – 43 L |
-5.3 |
50.0% /
48.6% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
8.8 |
70.6% /
64.1% |
17.6% /
15.4% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
53 /
76 |
59.5% /
60.0% |
56.6% /
56.6% |
55.4% /
44.9% |
8.4 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
32.1% /
51.3% |
39.9 /
30.6 |
| 7 |
CIN |
45 – 10 W |
19.4 |
61.0% /
42.9% |
4.9% /
5.7% |
2.6% /
3.0% |
8.6 /
5.0 |
51.7% /
47.4% |
10.3% /
26.3% |
6.8 /
3.4 |
70 /
54 |
54.4% /
47.6% |
57.1% /
44.4% |
52.5% /
42.3% |
7.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
35.2% |
24.0 /
26.6 |
| 8 |
DEN |
30 – 23 W |
4.5 |
50.0% /
41.0% |
5.6% /
12.8% |
2.9% /
2.9% |
8.1 /
5.7 |
33.3% /
66.7% |
16.7% /
13.3% |
2.7 /
6.3 |
54 /
69 |
46.5% /
55.4% |
44.4% /
52.2% |
42.4% /
57.7% |
6.3 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
33.3% /
43.5% |
38.0 /
23.3 |
| 9 |
@CLE |
37 – 21 W |
10.7 |
63.6% /
46.7% |
6.1% /
4.4% |
3.2% /
2.3% |
10.9 /
6.4 |
58.3% /
56.0% |
29.2% /
24.0% |
5.8 /
4.1 |
57 /
70 |
61.7% /
51.9% |
61.4% /
50.0% |
62.1% /
26.0% |
8.8 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.1% /
35.7% |
33.3 /
21.8 |
| 10 |
ARI |
26 – 14 W |
8.0 |
54.5% /
36.4% |
15.2% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
5.1% |
6.4 /
3.8 |
45.8% /
57.7% |
33.3% /
7.7% |
5.0 /
3.7 |
57 /
70 |
56.8% /
44.2% |
50.9% /
44.3% |
58.3% /
34.1% |
5.8 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.1% /
37.1% |
36.2 /
23.7 |
| 11 |
@LA |
51 – 54 L |
-4.5 |
59.2% /
46.3% |
6.1% /
9.3% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
7.0 |
45.0% /
39.1% |
5.0% /
21.7% |
4.9 /
3.4 |
69 /
77 |
55.2% /
48.3% |
55.1% /
44.2% |
57.7% /
49.2% |
7.9 /
5.9 |
2.9% /
2.6% |
29.0% /
29.9% |
27.5 /
26.0 |
| 13 |
@OAK |
40 – 33 W |
10.1 |
55.3% /
48.8% |
0.0% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.6 |
48.5% /
67.9% |
15.2% /
17.9% |
5.4 /
6.1 |
71 /
69 |
57.7% /
52.6% |
52.1% /
56.5% |
52.5% /
49.8% |
6.6 /
6.4 |
1.4% /
4.3% |
46.5% /
40.6% |
29.9 /
31.7 |
| 14 |
BAL |
27 – 24 W |
1.6 |
53.6% /
41.4% |
5.4% /
10.3% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.2 |
55.6% /
56.4% |
25.9% /
10.3% |
3.5 /
5.1 |
83 /
68 |
55.6% /
52.8% |
54.2% /
50.0% |
28.3% /
25.5% |
5.3 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
32.5% /
57.4% |
30.2 /
29.8 |
Los Angeles Chargers
@ 
Kansas City Chiefs