Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *JACKSONVILLE (+3 -115) over LA Chargers

Lean – Under (44)

• The Chargers are without both starting tackles after Joe Alt’s season-ending ankle surgery. Backup LT Austin Deculus continues to struggle, surrendering 5 pressures in week 10. Deculus has allowed pressure on 12.4% of pass plays, which is the second-worst rate among all offensive tackles. Backup RT Trey Pipkins ranks 8th-worst in pass blocking efficiency on true sets.
• Justin Herbert’s 2.21-seconds time to throw against the Steelers was the fastest of his career, as the shorthanded offensive line is completely handicapping this offense.
• Los Angeles scored 25 points last on Sunday night but averaged only 4.6 yards per play.
• Jacksonville edge rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker have combined for 66 pressures, and the pair will wreak havoc on Deculus and Pipkins.
• Chargers RG Mekhi Becton ranks 6th worst in pass blocking efficiency, and he will struggle lined up across from interior defender Arik Armstead, who has 31 pressures (6th).
• The Jaguars’ defense is conceding a league-low 0.03 EPA/target to opposing wide receivers, and they will contain Herbert, who is the only quarterback in the NFL targeting wide receivers on more than 70% of his passes.
• Jacksonville’s offense traded for WR Jakobi Meyers at the deadline, and he averaged 2.56 yards per route run in his first game.
• Trevor Lawrence could also benefit from possibly getting back WR Brian Thomas and TE Brenton Strange, who had a 67% success rate in the first 5 weeks of the season before going on the IR.
• Our model favors the Chargers by just 0.1, with a predicted total of 43.0 points, and the Chargers apply to a 118-213-9 ATS situation.

Jacksonville is a 1-Star Best Bet at +2.5 or more.