Los Angeles Chargers @

Houston Texans

Sun, Dec 26
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 461
Odds: Houston Texans +10.5, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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Lean – LA Chargers (-10.5) over HOUSTON

The Chargers had a covid scare earlier in the week, but it looks like everyone will be available on Sunday except RB Austin Ekeler and edge defender Joey Bosa. Ekeler is worth 0.4 points and Bose, who ranks 8th in pass rushing efficiency, is worth 0.8 points to the Los Angeles defense.┬áThe Texans scored 30 points for the first game under Davis Mills last week, but they were aided by a kick return touchdown, and I expect them to be under 20 points again this week as they were in six of Mills’ first eight starts.

Justin Herbert’s rate of passes with at least 20 air yards has gone from 7.6% in the first 11 weeks to 12.8% over the last month. Herbert will need to continue with the vertical attack on Sunday with his top option underneath blanketed. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is averaging 1.65 yards per route run in the slot (7th) but he will be shut down by Houston nickelback Tavierre Thomas, who is conceding a league-low 0.37 yards per cover snap in the slot.

Our model favors the Chargers by 12.2 points, with a predicted total of 44.7 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chargers
  • Texans
LAC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.79 35.50
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.7% 46.9%
  • Sack Rate 4.7% 6.0%
  • Int Rate 2.0% 2.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.8% 19.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 34.3% 40.4%
  • NYPP 6.80 6.25



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.71 29.36
  • RB YPR 4.15 4.44
  • Stuff Rate 20.8% 18.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 52.0% 58.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 41.7% 36.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.50 4.67




Game

  • All Snaps 65.50 64.86
  • Early Down Succ 53.0% 54.7%
  • Succ Rate 50.6% 52.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.3% 39.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.93 5.53
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.08 28.72
  • Run Ratio 37.7% 45.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 1.13 -1.13
 
  • Points 27.07 26.43
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