Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *GREEN BAY (+3.5) over LA Chargers

· There isn’t a ton separating these teams with the Packers offense rated 14th in EPA/play while the Chargers are 13th in EPA/play since losing starting C Corey Linsley and starting WR Mike Williams in week 3.

· Green Bay’s defense is allowing a 44.4% success rate (22nd) while Los Angeles is surrendering a 45.9% success rate (27th).

· The Chargers have a compensated net yards per play of -0.1 while the Packers are net even. I just don’t think you can make Los Angeles a field-goal favorite unless priors are over half your model at this point in the season, which is not the case.

· The Chargers offensive line ranks 28th in pass blocking efficiency with the aforementioned center Corey Linsley out due to a heart issue, and they will struggle to protect Justin Herbert. Green Bay’s defense has a 37.4% pressure rate (10th-highest).

· Los Angeles RT Trey Pipkins ranks 8th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency, and he will be powerless versus Packers edge rusher Rashan Gary, who has a 20.2% pressure rate.

· Green Bay RB Aaron Jones is averaging 0.34 EPA/target (4th) and he’s finally not on a pitch count as the last two games were his only of the season above 15 touches. Jones will be a threat on the ground as the Chargers rush defense ranks 29th by our numbers.

· Jordan Love is averaging 6.9 yppp in the last two games with more Jones on the field and Love has a favorable matchup against a Los Angeles defense with an 81.7% zone coverage rate (7th-highest). Love’s yards per attempt versus zone is 35% more than his yards per attempt against man coverage (6th-largest gap).

· Our model favors the Packers by 1.3 points, with a predicted total of 42.9 points.

Green Bay is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.