Los Angeles Chargers @

Detroit Lions

Sun, Sep 15
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 263
Odds: Detroit Lions +2.5, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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Note: This game is part of the 1-Star Best Bet 6 Point Teaser (Detroit +8.5 with Atlanta +7.5 or more).

DETROIT over LA Chargers

The Chargers barely got by the Colts last week but it was not because they were missing Melvin Gordon. Austin Ekeler is the Chargers best running back and he showed it with 8 avoided tackles and gaining 3.56 yards per route run. However, the Lions have a top 5 rush defense that is spearheaded by DT Damon Harrison and Ekeler is unlikely to produce a similar performance this week. Philip Rivers was sacked 4 times behind a mediocre offensive line that is missing left tackle Russell Okung and the veteran quarterback is likely to be under fire again this week. Detroit revamped their pass rush in the offseason by adding Trey Flowers and Mike Daniels while returning starter Devon Kennard recorded 7 pressures last week, 3rd-most in the league. There’s a decent chance that Lions’ top corner Darius Slay follows Keenan Allen in the slot rather than staying on the outside defending a less dangerous receiver, as the Pro Bowl cornerback played 14 snaps on the inside last week. With Allen covered Rivers would normally be looking for his tight end in this matchup, but it now appears star TE Hunter Henry will be out for an extended period of time. Furthermore, coach Anthony Lynn is concerned with Mike Williams’ knee injury and the wide receiver may not be available this week.

Detroit’s tackles were atrocious in week 1, surrendering a league-worst 7 pressures each. Taylor Decker and Rick Wagner will need to be better versus Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola could be limited by Casey Heyward and Desmond King, respectively, but rookie TE TJ Hockenson should be a great option for Matt Stafford when he’s under pressure. The first round pick had an excellent debut, leading all tight ends with 131 yards, and Hockenson will look to continue that success against a Chargers defense that is without safety Derwin James. Kerryon Johnson should find running room on in the ground game as the Los Angeles rush defense looked porous last week versus the Colts, wasn’t good last season, and is expected to be worse without James, who is one of the better run defending safeties in the league.

Both of these teams played overtime last week and now have and early time slot on Sunday. The Chargers injuries are stacking up on both sides of the ball and our model favors the Lions slightly with a predicted total of 49.5 – and Detroit also has the matchup advantage. Teasers add value to bets when moving through the key numbers of 3 and 7, especially when avoiding road favorites and games with high totals above 51. That is the case for both Atlanta and Detroit.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chargers
  • Lions


  • Pass Plays 37.5 29.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.9% 50.7%
  • Sack Rate 6.6% 3.4%
  • Int Rate 2.9% 3.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 26.0% 19.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 55.4% 37.1%
  • NYPP 8.0 7.1


  • Rush Plays 23.0 30.5
  • RB YPR 5.6 4.8
  • Stuff Rate 19.9% 16.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 54.6% 58.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 59.7% 33.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.7 4.8


  • All Snaps 60.5 60.0
  • Early Down Succ 49.5% 56.4%
  • Succ Rate 50.5% 54.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 56.7% 38.9%
  • Yards Per Play 7.1 6.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.7% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 32.0 30.2
  • Run Ratio 38.0% 50.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.0 23.6
  • Game Control 4.0 -4.0
  • Points 20.0 18.5
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