Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – Under (47) – LA Chargers (-3) vs DENVER
Justin Herbert has attempted only two passes at least 20 yards downfield over the past three games and that is unlikely to change after the Chargers put up 41 points using the dink-and-dunk strategy last week. However, Kyle Fuller is allowing only 0.59 yards per cover snap in the slot, and he will take away the underneath routes by Keenan Allen, who is averaging 2.00 yards per route run (14th). Pro Bowl edge defender Bradley Chubb will be back on the field after only playing 19 snaps this season and he could line up across from RT Storm Norton, who ranks 46th in pass blocking efficiency out of 51 qualifying tackles. Chubb had 57 pressures last year (7th).
The Broncos are likely without both starting tackles and I think they will try to take the ball out of Teddy Bridgewater’s hands with Pro Bowl DE Joey Bosa (44 pressures) bearing down on him all game. The Chargers rush defense ranks 31st and Denver knows they need to pound the rock as Los Angeles will be without interior defender Linval Joseph, who has 20 run stops (5th). Running the ball runs the clock, which helps the under here.
Our model favors the Chargers by 0.6 points with a predicted total of 44.1 points and the Under is a Strong Opinion at 47 points or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.30
33.80
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.1%
48.8%
-
Sack Rate
4.4%
5.9%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.2%
18.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.1%
37.7%
-
NYPP
6.79
6.21
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.10
30.80
-
RB YPR
4.15
4.53
-
Stuff Rate
22.5%
17.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.2%
60.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.0%
38.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.59
4.71
Game
-
All Snaps
64.40
64.60
-
Early Down Succ
52.3%
57.9%
-
Succ Rate
50.2%
54.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.5%
37.8%
-
Yards Per Play
6.00
5.50
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.80
28.93
-
Run Ratio
35.9%
47.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
0.17
-0.17
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.20
35.10
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.9%
44.4%
-
Sack Rate
8.1%
6.6%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.3%
22.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.8%
47.0%
-
NYPP
6.20
6.22
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.70
25.00
-
RB YPR
4.51
4.29
-
Stuff Rate
25.1%
20.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.6%
54.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.8%
39.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.52
4.40
Game
-
All Snaps
61.90
60.10
-
Early Down Succ
49.9%
52.1%
-
Succ Rate
45.6%
48.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.0%
44.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.53
5.46
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.58
28.33
-
Run Ratio
39.9%
41.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.48
25.25
-
Game Control
-0.21
0.21
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@WAS |
20 – 16 W |
1.99 |
55.1% /
40.9% |
4.1% /
4.5% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
6.82 /
6.05 |
41.4% /
70.4% |
37.9% /
18.5% |
3.10 /
4.67 |
78 /
49 |
43.9% /
63.2% |
50.0% /
57.1% |
24.1% /
23.4% |
5.44 /
5.29 |
1.3% /
2.0% |
37.2% /
55.1% |
30.00 /
25.78 |
| 2 |
DAL |
17 – 20 L |
-2.86 |
53.5% /
69.0% |
4.7% /
6.9% |
4.9% /
3.7% |
7.28 /
7.62 |
52.6% /
64.5% |
15.8% /
6.5% |
5.00 /
6.39 |
62 /
60 |
56.3% /
69.4% |
53.2% /
66.7% |
40.9% /
40.7% |
6.58 /
6.98 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.6% /
51.7% |
29.29 /
24.63 |
| 3 |
@KC |
30 – 24 W |
3.88 |
53.8% /
54.3% |
2.6% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
7.05 /
5.46 |
40.9% /
70.0% |
27.3% /
3.3% |
3.50 /
6.20 |
61 /
76 |
52.1% /
61.5% |
49.2% /
60.5% |
32.1% /
31.6% |
5.77 /
5.75 |
0.0% /
2.6% |
36.1% /
39.5% |
27.70 /
25.50 |
| 4 |
LV |
28 – 14 W |
9.59 |
46.3% /
34.2% |
4.9% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
5.17 /
4.34 |
61.8% /
38.9% |
23.5% /
27.8% |
4.94 /
2.67 |
75 /
56 |
58.6% /
39.5% |
53.3% /
35.7% |
35.1% /
33.6% |
5.07 /
3.80 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.3% /
32.1% |
33.50 /
24.42 |
| 5 |
CLV |
47 – 42 W |
-2.61 |
46.7% /
54.5% |
4.4% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.47 /
9.12 |
60.9% /
57.1% |
13.0% /
17.1% |
4.87 /
6.57 |
68 /
68 |
51.0% /
63.5% |
51.5% /
55.9% |
54.5% /
53.6% |
7.25 /
7.81 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
33.8% /
51.5% |
26.75 /
29.25 |
| 6 |
@BLT |
6 – 34 L |
-14.75 |
39.0% /
50.0% |
4.9% /
10.0% |
2.6% /
7.4% |
4.44 /
4.67 |
33.3% /
65.8% |
25.0% /
21.1% |
2.17 /
4.92 |
53 /
68 |
43.2% /
61.8% |
37.7% /
58.8% |
25.8% /
32.8% |
3.92 /
4.81 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
22.6% /
55.9% |
28.55 /
36.64 |
| 8 |
NE |
24 – 27 L |
0.77 |
39.5% /
44.4% |
7.9% /
2.8% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
5.42 /
5.86 |
40.0% /
59.0% |
15.0% /
23.1% |
8.15 /
3.62 |
58 /
75 |
42.9% /
54.5% |
39.7% /
52.0% |
46.1% /
28.1% |
6.36 /
4.69 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
34.5% /
52.0% |
20.25 /
37.18 |
| 9 |
@PHI |
27 – 24 W |
1.17 |
57.9% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.37 /
8.61 |
40.7% /
59.0% |
25.9% /
12.8% |
3.30 /
4.51 |
65 /
57 |
51.0% /
53.3% |
50.8% /
56.1% |
30.3% /
47.3% |
6.85 /
5.81 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.5% /
68.4% |
29.38 /
20.14 |
| 10 |
MIN |
20 – 27 L |
-2.14 |
44.4% /
46.2% |
5.6% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.75 /
7.13 |
57.9% /
57.6% |
10.5% /
27.3% |
4.32 /
3.12 |
55 /
72 |
52.4% /
54.5% |
49.1% /
51.4% |
23.5% /
36.0% |
4.60 /
5.29 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
34.5% /
45.8% |
23.90 /
34.09 |
| 11 |
PIT |
41 – 37 W |
6.66 |
62.8% /
46.8% |
4.7% /
6.4% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
8.70 /
5.21 |
61.5% /
55.6% |
23.1% /
16.7% |
6.12 /
3.06 |
69 /
65 |
66.7% /
53.3% |
62.3% /
49.2% |
39.2% /
39.9% |
7.72 /
4.62 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
27.7% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NYG |
27 – 13 W |
4.88 |
52.6% /
48.7% |
5.3% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.71 /
6.51 |
39.3% /
45.0% |
21.4% /
20.0% |
5.89 /
3.00 |
66 /
59 |
45.7% /
47.7% |
47.0% /
47.5% |
34.7% /
30.3% |
6.36 /
5.32 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
42.4% /
33.9% |
23.25 /
25.89 |
| 2 |
@JAX |
23 – 13 W |
3.44 |
51.4% /
32.4% |
8.1% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
8.16 /
3.35 |
46.7% /
50.0% |
33.3% /
18.8% |
3.20 /
4.69 |
67 /
50 |
56.9% /
36.8% |
49.3% /
38.0% |
34.9% /
42.5% |
5.94 /
3.78 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.8% /
32.0% |
32.09 /
20.67 |
| 3 |
NYJ |
26 – 0 W |
13.14 |
55.6% /
35.0% |
7.4% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
8.26 /
2.98 |
43.2% /
53.8% |
35.1% /
15.4% |
3.27 /
3.31 |
64 /
53 |
51.9% /
47.2% |
48.4% /
39.6% |
53.1% /
28.6% |
5.38 /
3.06 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
57.8% /
24.5% |
38.64 /
25.64 |
| 4 |
BLT |
7 – 23 L |
-6.17 |
28.6% /
50.0% |
11.9% /
7.5% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
3.52 /
7.60 |
47.1% /
60.0% |
11.8% /
16.7% |
6.24 /
3.40 |
59 /
70 |
40.5% /
59.6% |
33.9% /
54.3% |
34.9% /
40.2% |
4.31 /
5.80 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
42.9% |
28.08 /
22.85 |
| 5 |
@PIT |
19 – 27 L |
-8.83 |
47.5% /
53.8% |
5.0% /
3.8% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
6.70 /
9.38 |
38.9% /
45.7% |
27.8% /
20.0% |
5.89 /
4.20 |
58 /
61 |
52.5% /
47.9% |
44.8% /
49.2% |
45.7% /
51.3% |
6.45 /
6.41 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
31.0% /
57.4% |
30.67 /
17.80 |
| 6 |
LV |
24 – 34 L |
-9.24 |
48.1% /
48.3% |
9.3% /
6.9% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
5.72 /
11.72 |
52.2% /
52.2% |
21.7% /
17.4% |
4.87 /
3.74 |
77 /
52 |
58.2% /
55.0% |
49.4% /
50.0% |
28.3% /
64.4% |
5.47 /
8.19 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
29.9% /
44.2% |
22.46 /
34.75 |
| 7 |
@CLV |
14 – 17 L |
-7.62 |
42.9% /
52.9% |
5.7% /
2.9% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
5.20 /
5.71 |
42.9% /
63.6% |
21.4% /
21.2% |
2.93 /
5.52 |
49 /
67 |
41.7% /
58.0% |
42.9% /
58.2% |
13.6% /
30.7% |
4.55 /
5.61 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
49.3% |
30.88 /
24.00 |
| 8 |
WAS |
17 – 10 W |
2.59 |
46.7% /
43.2% |
13.3% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
5.1% |
6.33 /
5.23 |
47.6% /
66.7% |
14.3% /
12.5% |
3.95 /
4.67 |
51 /
68 |
50.0% /
60.4% |
47.1% /
51.5% |
29.4% /
41.6% |
5.35 /
5.03 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
41.2% /
35.3% |
29.25 /
27.78 |
| 9 |
@DAL |
30 – 16 W |
13.61 |
43.8% /
34.1% |
12.5% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
6.78 /
5.17 |
48.8% /
56.3% |
29.3% /
18.8% |
4.63 /
4.88 |
73 /
57 |
46.4% /
47.4% |
46.6% /
40.4% |
60.8% /
48.4% |
5.58 /
5.09 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
56.2% /
28.1% |
30.67 /
30.90 |
| 10 |
PHI |
13 – 30 L |
-7.87 |
35.1% /
54.2% |
2.7% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
5.73 /
7.17 |
61.1% /
52.5% |
16.7% /
32.5% |
5.33 /
5.35 |
55 /
64 |
51.2% /
54.9% |
43.6% /
53.1% |
42.2% /
54.3% |
5.60 /
6.03 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
32.7% /
62.5% |
28.82 /
22.20 |
Los Angeles Chargers
@ 
Denver Broncos