Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Over (44) – LA Chargers (-3) vs DENVER

Justin Herbert and Drew Lock should be bombs away in this matchup with ideal weather conditions and with their underneath options taken away. Lock is leading all qualified passers with 10.5 average intended air yards and no quarterback has more touchdowns on balls thrown at least 20 yards downfield than Justin Herbert since the rookie took over under center in week 2. It looks like we’ll see plenty of wind and rain across the country this weekend, but not in Denver where it should be clear skies. Slot receivers Keenan Allen and Jerry Jeudy lead the Chargers and Broncos, respectively, in targets but they will have a hard time across from two of the league’s best nickelbacks. The Chargers’ Desmond King is conceding a league-low 0.44 yards per cover snap in the slot and Denver’s Bryce Callahan has surrendered just 0.45 yards per cover snap in the slot. Herbert and Lock will need to look deep as their safety blankets will likely be covered and more deep throws tends to lead to higher scoring games.

Broncos edge rushers Malik Reed and Bradley Chubb combined for three sacks and four pressures last week but I expect the duo to be limited on Sunday. LT Sam Tevi is conceding just a 4.3% pressure rate and RT Bryan Bulaga should be back in uniform this week to provide a nice boost for this Chargers offense, as backup tackle Trey Pipkins ranks 53rd out of 56 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency. LG Forrest Lamp ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency and he should make it difficult for Shelby Harris on the interior. I do not expect Denver’s pass rush to put too much pressure on Herbert this week, which will give him more time to look down the field.

The Broncos’ offense is better than they’ve appeared thus far as they’ve faced four defenses in the top third of the league by our numbers (Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, New England, Kansas City) through their first six games. Denver’s offense has also had to deal with rain in week 4 and snow last game. The Chargers’ rush defense ranks 29th and the Broncos have been one of the most run-heavy teams on early downs. Melvin Gordon should shine with Phillip Lindsay possibly out with a concussion.

Our model favors the Chargers by 2.9 points, with a predicted total of 47.7 points, and the Over is a Strong Opinion at 44 points or less.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chargers
Broncos

LAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.3 39.0
Succ Pass Plays 47.3% 46.2%
Sack Rate 5.3% 5.5%
Int Rate 1.7% 0.9%
Deep Pass Rate 22.0% 11.7%
Big Pass Yards 37.1% 24.5%
NYPP 7.1 5.9

Rush

Rush Plays 35.3 23.7
RB YPR 4.5 4.0
Stuff Rate 17.2% 21.7%
Succ Rush Plays 55.2% 46.0%
Big Rush Yards 29.5% 46.3%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.6

Game

All Snaps 74.7 62.7
Early Down Succ 52.6% 47.9%
Succ Rate 51.0% 45.7%
Big Yards Rate 33.3% 32.1%
Yards Per Play 5.7 5.4
Fumble Lost Rate 1.4% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.8 28.5
Run Ratio 47.2% 38.1%
Starting Field Pos 24.1 31.2
Game Control -1.1 1.1

Points 17.3 19.0

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CIN	16 – 13 W	-2.4	37.5% / 43.6%	6.3% / 7.7%	0.0% / 2.8%	6.5 / 4.4	41.0% / 50.0%	20.5% / 17.9%	4.0 / 4.4	71 / 67	42.3% / 48.1%	39.4% / 46.3%	39.8% / 12.5%	5.1 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.5%	54.9% / 41.8%	25.9 / 33.6
2	KC	20 – 23 L	5.4	51.4% / 41.7%	5.7% / 2.1%	3.0% / 0.0%	8.5 / 6.0	63.6% / 54.5%	13.6% / 9.1%	4.2 / 5.7	79 / 70	61.9% / 44.4%	58.2% / 45.7%	32.6% / 41.8%	6.1 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	55.7% / 31.4%	21.7 / 22.3
3	CAR	16 – 21 L	-6.1	52.9% / 53.3%	3.9% / 6.7%	2.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 7.4	60.9% / 33.3%	17.4% / 38.1%	5.1 / 3.9	74 / 51	53.4% / 51.3%	55.4% / 45.1%	27.5% / 42.1%	5.9 / 5.9	4.1% / 0.0%	31.1% / 41.2%	24.6 / 37.8

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	TEN	14 – 16 L	0.4	48.5% / 59.1%	0.0% / 2.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.5 / 5.6	57.7% / 52.9%	30.8% / 20.6%	4.1 / 3.8	59 / 78	57.1% / 59.0%	52.5% / 56.4%	38.4% / 29.2%	5.5 / 4.8	1.7% / 0.0%	44.1% / 43.6%	26.9 / 21.4
2	@PIT	21 – 26 L	-7.1	34.8% / 45.2%	15.2% / 2.4%	2.6% / 2.4%	4.7 / 7.2	42.3% / 40.9%	23.1% / 27.3%	4.0 / 5.0	72 / 64	40.0% / 51.0%	37.5% / 43.8%	57.4% / 49.5%	4.4 / 6.4	1.4% / 1.6%	36.1% / 34.4%	29.9 / 35.1
3	TB	10 – 28 L	-12.6	35.6% / 45.0%	13.3% / 5.0%	5.1% / 0.0%	4.1 / 7.1	35.7% / 52.0%	28.6% / 24.0%	3.0 / 2.7	59 / 65	36.4% / 48.9%	35.6% / 47.7%	34.1% / 42.2%	3.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	23.7% / 38.5%	21.5 / 36.9

Los Angeles Chargers @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Nov 1

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis