Game Analysis

DALLAS (-2) vs LA Chargers

• The Chargers have the kind of defense to make Dak Prescott struggle on Sunday. Los Angeles has a 74% standard pass rush rate (5th-highest) and a 61% two-high coverage rate (4th-highest). Dak Prescott is 30th relatively against a standard pass rush compared to the blitz, and he is 31st relatively versus two-high compared to single-high coverages.
• Chargers edge defender Tuli Tuipulotu ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency, and he will wreak havoc across from RT Terence Steele, who has surrendered a league-high 43 pressures.
• Dallas LT Tyler Guyton could be back this week. Guyton is allowing an 8.1% pressure rate while backup LT Nathan Thomas is surrendering a 11.4% pressure rate.
• The Los Angeles pass protection is surrendering a 10.0% sack rate without LT Joe Alt this season, compared to a 7.6% sack rate of Justin Herbert with Alt on the field.
• Cowboys’ interior defender Quinnen Williams has cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol and is now expected to play. Williams ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency and is worth 0.8 points to the Dallas defense by our metrics.
• Our model favors the Cowboys by 0.2 points, with a predicted total of 47.3 points, but the Chargers apply to a negative 51-131-5 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s upset win over divisional rival Kansas City. I used Dallas in my spread pool.