Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (41.5} – LA Chargers at Cleveland

Lean – CLEVELAND (+1.5)

• The Browns have a functional NFL offense again, and it’s clear Deshaun Watson was the problem. Watson had zero 300-yard passing games in 19 starts for Cleveland, while Joe Flacco and Jameis Winston have gone over 300 yards in 6 of 7 starts.
• Winston had the fifth-most attempts of 20-plus yards when he was Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback from 2015-2019, and he completed three deep passes in last week’s win. The Chargers have a very good run defense, allowing -0.23 EPA/rush (2nd), so I expect Winston to continue slinging it downfield on Sunday.
• Los Angeles starting CB Asante Samuel is out and we likely won’t see starting CB Kristian Fulton in this game either after he tweaked his hamstring again last week. Fulton is allowing only 0.55 yards per cover snap (5th) and the pair of cornerbacks are worth 1.7 points to the Chargers defense by our numbers.
• Chargers’ star edge rusher Joey Bosa returned last week after missing the past three games and suffered a hamstring injury near the end of the third quarter. He did not return afterward and is likely out this week.
• The Los Angeles offense had a -5% dropback rate versus expectation before the bye week, but they are up to +4% post-bye (3rd-highest).
• Justin Herbert has a favorable matchup to entice more throwing, as he is averaging 20% more yppp versus Cover 1 this year and the Browns defense has the 2nd-highest Cover 1 rate.
• Chargers WR Ladd McConkey is averaging 0.45 EPA/target (18th) and 5.3 yards per route run against press-man coverage. Cleveland nickleback Greg Newsome is allowing 1.43 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th-worst) and will struggle on the inside with the rookie wide receiver in press man.
• Los Angeles right tackle Joe Alt’s 38 pass-blocking snaps without conceding a pressure last week were the most by a rookie tackle since 2021. Chargers LT Rashawn Slater ranks 7th in pass-blocking efficiency and he will limit edge defender Myles Garrett, who has 36 pressures (7th).
• The Browns’ other edge rusher Za’Darius Smith has a 14% pressure rate, but he is heavily involved in trade talks and might not suit up for this game to preserve his value. His loss would be amplified for Cleveland’s defense because Smith’s backup Ogbo Okoronkwo is also likely out this week, meaning the Browns would be down to third-string edge defender Isaiah McGuire.
• Furthermore, Cleveland’s defense will be without starting CB Denzel Ward, and starting LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was carted off the field last week due to a neck injury.
• Our model favors the Chargers by 0.7 points, with a predicted total of 47.6 points, and LA applies to a 127-208-13 ATS situation. I obviously used Cleveland in my spread pool but the play here is on the Over.

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 43 points or less.