Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – Over (53) – BUFFALO vs LA Chargers
Lean – BUFFALO (-4.5)
Justin Herbert completed eight passes with at least 10 air yards for nearly 200 yards and two TDs last week and the rookie has shown the ability to carry the Chargers’ offense. Herbert has thrown for at least 300 yards and/or scored three total TDs in every single start this season. Keenan Allen caught a career-high 16 passes against the Jets for 145 yards and a touchdown. Allen should be featured again this week as the Bills have struggled defending inside receivers all year with Taron Johnson surrendering 1.56 yards per slot cover snap, which ranks 23rd out of 27 qualifying nickelbacks.
Bills’ RG Brian Winters ranks last among qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency and he will have trouble staying in front of Chargers’ interior defender Jerry Tillery. WR John Brown (worth a half point) has not been practicing and his absence has hindered Buffalo’s offense, but I don’t expect the Bills to be slowed down on Sunday as long Josh Allen has time in the pocket. The Chargers blitz at the lowest rate in the NFL, which probably won’t work in this matchup. Allen is averaging 7.7 yards per pass play against a standard rush, compared to 6.4 yppp when opponents blitz this season. CB Casey Hayward is dealing with a groin injury and Stefon Diggs (6th yards per route run) should dominate if he is unable to go.
Our model favors the Bills by 6.8 points, with a predicted total of 53.3 points, and Buffalo applies to a 61-16-1 ATS favorite off a bye angle. The over doesn’t show much value based on the model but the over has our maximum matchup rating, which has proven to be predictive. The Over is a Strong Opinion at 53.5 or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.6
39.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.8%
43.2%
-
Sack Rate
5.3%
5.6%
-
Int Rate
1.7%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.7%
17.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.5%
38.8%
-
NYPP
7.3
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.8
24.0
-
RB YPR
3.8
4.8
-
Stuff Rate
20.3%
19.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.1%
50.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.8%
48.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
5.0
Game
-
All Snaps
72.4
63.0
-
Early Down Succ
47.9%
48.8%
-
Succ Rate
47.0%
46.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.9%
41.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
27.9
-
Run Ratio
45.3%
38.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.3
31.3
-
Game Control
1.5
-1.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.0
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.5%
49.8%
-
Sack Rate
5.0%
7.5%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.5%
12.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.4%
36.9%
-
NYPP
7.2
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.7
28.0
-
RB YPR
3.4
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
22.1%
20.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.0%
59.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.2%
39.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
63.7
64.0
-
Early Down Succ
54.8%
55.7%
-
Succ Rate
53.2%
53.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.3%
39.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
27.4
-
Run Ratio
39.4%
43.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.0
27.8
-
Game Control
3.8
-3.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CIN |
16 – 13 W |
-2.4 |
37.5% /
43.6% |
6.3% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
6.5 /
4.4 |
41.0% /
50.0% |
20.5% /
17.9% |
4.0 /
4.4 |
71 /
67 |
42.3% /
48.1% |
39.4% /
46.3% |
39.8% /
12.5% |
5.1 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
54.9% /
41.8% |
25.9 /
33.6 |
| 2 |
KC |
20 – 23 L |
5.4 |
51.4% /
41.7% |
5.7% /
2.1% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
6.0 |
63.6% /
54.5% |
13.6% /
9.1% |
4.2 /
5.7 |
79 /
70 |
61.9% /
44.4% |
58.2% /
45.7% |
32.6% /
41.8% |
6.1 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.7% /
31.4% |
21.7 /
22.3 |
| 3 |
CAR |
16 – 21 L |
-6.1 |
52.9% /
53.3% |
3.9% /
6.7% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
7.4 |
60.9% /
33.3% |
17.4% /
38.1% |
5.1 /
3.9 |
74 /
51 |
53.4% /
51.3% |
55.4% /
45.1% |
27.5% /
42.1% |
5.9 /
5.9 |
4.1% /
0.0% |
31.1% /
41.2% |
24.6 /
37.8 |
| 4 |
@TB |
31 – 38 L |
4.0 |
40.7% /
54.3% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
4.0% /
2.2% |
10.3 /
8.0 |
26.1% /
44.4% |
34.8% /
14.8% |
2.0 /
4.3 |
50 /
73 |
31.6% /
53.3% |
34.0% /
50.7% |
50.6% /
45.5% |
6.5 /
6.6 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
46.0% /
37.0% |
22.1 /
35.3 |
| 5 |
@NO |
27 – 30 L |
6.3 |
40.5% /
50.0% |
8.1% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
31.3% /
52.0% |
31.3% /
16.0% |
3.5 /
3.8 |
69 /
75 |
34.0% /
55.0% |
36.2% /
50.7% |
54.6% /
21.8% |
5.1 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.4% /
33.3% |
25.1 /
29.3 |
| 7 |
JAC |
39 – 29 W |
4.5 |
51.1% /
28.1% |
2.2% /
15.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
4.8 |
46.9% /
59.3% |
18.8% /
18.5% |
4.2 /
5.2 |
77 /
59 |
53.3% /
45.0% |
49.4% /
42.4% |
49.4% /
61.6% |
6.3 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
41.6% /
45.8% |
32.7 /
28.8 |
| 9 |
LV |
26 – 31 L |
-4.3 |
54.5% /
37.5% |
4.5% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
6.7 |
51.6% /
69.2% |
12.9% /
19.2% |
4.1 /
6.2 |
75 /
50 |
54.4% /
55.0% |
53.3% /
54.0% |
33.2% /
60.0% |
5.9 /
6.4 |
1.3% /
2.0% |
41.3% /
52.0% |
29.3 /
34.6 |
| 8 |
@DEN |
30 – 31 L |
4.7 |
45.7% /
37.2% |
4.3% /
4.7% |
4.5% /
2.4% |
6.0 /
5.7 |
55.3% /
37.5% |
13.2% /
25.0% |
5.5 /
6.8 |
84 /
59 |
52.2% /
38.6% |
50.0% /
37.3% |
47.2% /
47.9% |
5.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.2% /
27.1% |
29.0 /
29.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYJ |
27 – 17 W |
12.9 |
55.1% /
36.8% |
6.1% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.2 /
5.3 |
40.6% /
60.0% |
31.3% /
20.0% |
3.1 /
3.5 |
81 /
53 |
48.4% /
47.5% |
49.4% /
43.4% |
27.5% /
47.2% |
5.0 /
4.8 |
2.5% /
1.9% |
39.5% /
28.3% |
39.5 /
20.7 |
| 2 |
@MIA |
31 – 28 W |
4.2 |
61.1% /
48.0% |
2.8% /
6.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.5 /
6.2 |
39.1% /
63.6% |
17.4% /
18.2% |
4.8 /
4.5 |
59 /
72 |
55.3% /
56.9% |
52.5% /
52.8% |
70.0% /
29.5% |
8.9 /
5.7 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
39.0% /
30.6% |
20.4 /
26.9 |
| 3 |
LA |
35 – 32 W |
8.9 |
56.8% /
58.8% |
10.8% /
5.9% |
3.0% /
3.1% |
7.4 /
9.1 |
61.9% /
68.8% |
14.3% /
18.8% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
58 /
66 |
59.6% /
65.5% |
58.6% /
63.6% |
57.1% /
48.3% |
6.5 /
7.2 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
36.2% /
48.5% |
32.9 /
27.0 |
| 4 |
@LV |
30 – 23 W |
7.0 |
57.1% /
54.3% |
2.9% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.5 |
50.0% /
52.2% |
37.5% /
26.1% |
2.6 /
3.7 |
59 /
69 |
54.5% /
53.8% |
54.2% /
53.6% |
39.3% /
27.7% |
5.7 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
40.7% /
33.3% |
38.3 /
23.8 |
| 5 |
@TEN |
16 – 42 L |
-9.8 |
55.3% /
67.9% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
7.0 |
54.5% /
47.1% |
9.1% /
17.6% |
4.3 /
4.1 |
69 /
62 |
49.0% /
54.9% |
55.1% /
56.5% |
15.1% /
19.5% |
5.4 /
5.4 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
54.8% |
17.3 /
46.1 |
| 6 |
KC |
17 – 26 L |
-3.6 |
44.4% /
59.3% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
4.5 /
8.2 |
56.5% /
67.4% |
17.4% /
17.4% |
3.7 /
5.3 |
50 /
73 |
51.2% /
65.5% |
50.0% /
64.4% |
21.8% /
44.8% |
4.1 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
46.0% /
63.0% |
27.4 /
21.8 |
| 7 |
@NYJ |
18 – 10 W |
-1.4 |
57.8% /
27.6% |
4.4% /
20.7% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
6.6 /
3.1 |
63.0% /
59.1% |
18.5% /
27.3% |
4.7 /
4.5 |
72 /
51 |
67.8% /
45.2% |
59.7% /
41.2% |
33.2% /
34.7% |
5.9 /
3.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
43.1% |
36.1 /
25.8 |
| 8 |
NE |
24 – 21 W |
3.8 |
47.4% /
48.1% |
5.3% /
7.4% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.0 |
52.6% /
55.9% |
10.5% /
11.8% |
5.0 /
5.5 |
57 /
61 |
55.8% /
52.9% |
50.9% /
52.5% |
54.0% /
37.8% |
5.9 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
66.7% /
55.7% |
23.6 /
32.4 |
| 9 |
SEA |
44 – 34 W |
13.1 |
55.6% /
45.7% |
15.6% /
10.9% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
8.6 /
7.9 |
36.8% /
58.8% |
26.3% /
35.3% |
1.8 /
3.4 |
64 /
63 |
54.0% /
54.2% |
50.0% /
49.2% |
54.5% /
52.5% |
6.6 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
29.7% /
27.0% |
44.8 /
24.1 |
| 10 |
@ARI |
30 – 32 L |
3.2 |
54.0% /
51.4% |
0.0% /
8.6% |
4.0% /
3.1% |
5.9 /
6.7 |
44.4% /
62.9% |
38.9% /
14.3% |
4.1 /
6.2 |
68 /
70 |
52.7% /
60.7% |
51.5% /
57.1% |
40.4% /
53.9% |
5.4 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
26.5% /
50.0% |
29.9 /
29.3 |
Los Angeles Chargers
@ 
Buffalo Bills