Los Angeles Chargers @

Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Oct 17
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation:
Odds: Baltimore Ravens -2.5, Total: 52

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Under (52) – BALTIMORE vs LA Chargers

Strong Opinion – BALTIMORE (-2.5 -115)

Lamar Jackson is having the best season of his career, averaging 8.1 yppp (3rd) and 6.1 yards per carry (2nd). However, the Chargers probably have the league’s best antidote to Jackson in safety Derwin James, who had a team-high 15 tackles last week while creating four defensive stops and two tackles for loss.

The Los Angeles edge defenders are averaging 8.2 pressures per game and should exceed that mark in this matchup. Ravens LT Alejandro Villanueva and RT Patrick Mekari have combined to surrender 6 sacks.

The clear weakness on Baltimore’s defense is CB Anthony Averett, who allowed 15.8 yards per target and 10 first downs last week. Averett has no chance of staying in front of Mike Williams, who is averaging 2.52 yards per route run (9th). However, Justin Herbert might not have time to find Williams downfield. RG Oday Aboushi requires surgery to repair a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season. Aboushi ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency and┬ábackup RG Michael Schofield will struggle to contain interior defender Calais Campbell, who has 18 pressures (5th).

Herbert might be forced to get the ball out quickly to Keenan Allen, who should find space on short routes from the inside. Nickelback Tavon Young is surrendering a league-high 1.82 yards per cover snap in the slot.

Our model favors the Ravens by 4.0 points, with a predicted total of 48.6 points. The matchups are strongly in favor of Baltimore and the line is sitting on the favorable side of the most key number with 1.5 points or value. Baltimore is a Strong Opinion at -2.5 at -120 odds or better and the Under is a Strong Opinion at 51.5 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chargers
  • Ravens
LAC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 43.4 33.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 51.1% 50.6%
  • Sack Rate 4.1% 5.9%
  • Int Rate 1.4% 2.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.7% 15.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 36.9% 32.9%
  • NYPP 7.2 6.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.4 28.0
  • RB YPR 4.2 5.2
  • Stuff Rate 23.5% 14.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.5% 60.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 34.8% 38.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 5.3




Game

  • All Snaps 68.8 61.6
  • Early Down Succ 52.4% 59.3%
  • Succ Rate 51.4% 55.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.4% 36.2%
  • Yards Per Play 6.2 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.7 28.7
  • Run Ratio 36.6% 45.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 2.0 -2.0
 
  • Points 28.4 23.2
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