Los Angeles Chargers
@ 
Atlanta Falcons
Game Analysis
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LA Chargers (-1) vs ATLANTA
- Falcons RB Bijan Robinson is averaging 0.22 EPA/target (2nd) but Atlanta’s screen game will be contained as the Chargers are allowing a league-low 25% receiving success rate to opposing running backs.
- Raheem Morris said Falcons WR Darnell Mooney is “looking good and feeling good” and he feels good about him this week after it was initially not looking promising due to a hamstring injury. Mooney is averaging 0.45 EPA/target (20th).
- Los Angeles TE Will Dissly is averaging 1.92 yards per route run (5th), but he is nursing a groin injury and he will be limited by a Falcons defense allowing just 0.02 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (6th).
- I expect Justin Herbert to feature his wide receivers in a favorable matchup as he is averaging 22% more yards per attempt versus zone than man coverage (4th) and Atlanta’s defense has an 84% zone coverage rate (3rd-highest).
- Our model favors the Chargers by 1.8 with a predicted total of 45.7.