Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Las Vegas (+7 -115) over TAMPA BAY

• Aidan O’Connell completed a league-high 5 passes on balls thrown over 20 yards in the air last week and I expect O’Connell to continue going deep on Sunday with unremitting pass protection.
• The Raiders have averaged 8% more yards per attempt versus the blitz compared to a standard pass rush (8th) and O’Connell has a favorable matchup as the Buccaneers have a 49% blitz rate (2nd-highest).
• Tampa Bay’s defense is surrendering 0.49 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (31st) and will likely be without starting safety Jordan Whitehead and his backup Mike Edwards. The Buccaneers will struggle against TE Brock Bowers, who has averaged 2.18 yards per route run (3rd).
• Tampa Bay nickelback Tykee Smith is conceding 1.08 yards per cover snap in the slot (9th) but is nursing a knee injury.
• Buccaneers’ WR Chris Godwin had a league-high 69% success rate before a season-ending ankle injury and Baker Mayfield’s yards per attempt against man-coverage is only 88% of his yards per attempt versus zone (25th). The Raiders’ have a 35% man-coverage rate (4th-highest) and they will limit Mayfield this week.
• Tampa Bay RB Bucky Irving ran for 152 yards last game, but he will be contained by a Raiders defense conceding only 4.3 yards per rush (9th).
• The Raiders have lost 8 straight games but they’re still playing hard and road teams that have lost 7 or more consecutive games are 55-29-1 ATS over the years when facing an opponent off a win. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, applies to a negative 56-137-3 ATS home favorite letdown situation.
• Our model favors the Buccaneers by just 4.8 points, with a predicted total of 46.3 points, and the situation strongly favors the Raiders.

Las Vegas is a 1-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.