Game Analysis

PITTSBURGH (-2.5) vs Las Vegas

· Kenny Pickett will return for the Steelers at quarterback on Saturday night and they will need him to hit some deep shots on this Las Vegas defense to rookie wide receiver George Pickens, who has 24 targets with at least 20 air yards (4th).

· Pickett should have time as Pittsburgh’s offensive line ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency and the Raiders are one of five defenses with a sack rate under 5%. However, it could be too windy to throw downfield.

· Las Vegas is allowing -0.117 EPA/rush (4th) and will limit a Steelers ground game with a 45% success rate on the season (6th).

· Pittsburgh’s defense is showing the Brian Flores influence after bringing the former Dolphins head coach on staff this year. The Steelers have a 33% blitz rate, 5th-highest in the NFL.

· Derek Carr has 10 TDs and 2 INTs against the blitz this season compared to a 13:9 touchdown to interception ratio when not blitzed.

· Carr will look for Davante Adams or Hunter Renfrow in the slot when Pittsburgh’s defense sends extra pass rushers. Steelers nickelback Arthur Maulet is surrendering 1.65 yards per cover snap in slot (2nd-worst).

· Pittsburgh interior defender Cam Heyward registered two sacks and four hurries last week and will be a menace again this week across from LG Dylan Parham, who ranks 3rd-worst in pass blocking efficiency out of 50 qualifiers.

· The Raiders have a 43% rush success rate (9th) but the Steelers are allowing just a 37% success rate since TJ Watt came back into the lineup in week 10 (4th).

· Our model makes Pittsburgh a 0.9-point favorite with a predicted total of 39.2 points. I used the Raiders in my spread pool but not quite a lean at +2.5 (would certainly be one at +3)