Game Analysis

LA CHARGERS (-3) vs Las Vegas

• The Chargers brought in Jim Harbaugh as head coach and did not bring back their top 3 target earners from last season in WR Keenan Allen, RB Austin Ekeler, and TE Gerald Everett. Los Angeles also did not re-sign WR Mike Williams, who had the 3rd-most targets for them in 2022 and tore his ACL in week 3 of last year.
• Many thought this would mean they would take a wide receiver with the 5th pick in the draft but Harbaugh went with tackle Joe Alt instead. All of this signals new offensive coordinator Greg Roman is going to lean into the ground game.
• However, the Chargers had just a 33.1% rush success rate last season (30th) so they have a long way to go if they want to use this as the focal point of the offense. The Chargers bring in Bradley Bozeman at Center, and the aforementioned Alt, but otherwise it’s three of the same starters on the offensive line.
• Furthermore, the Los Angeles running backs could be washed. RB Gus Edwards has benefited from playing with Lamar Jackson his whole career and he averaged 5.2 yards per carry his first four seasons until last year he dropped off gaining 4.1 yards per rush.
• Backup running back JK Dobbins is working back from a September Achilles tear. It was his second significant injury as a pro, following a multi-ligament left knee injury back in 2021.
• Then we possibly expected Justin Herbert to be involved in some read option stuff that Greg Roman likes to use in the run game but now the quarterback was diagnosed with an injury to the plantar fascia in his right foot that could linger all season.
• The market has responded to all this and currently has the Chargers offense rated 20th in market priors. Last offseason had this unit in the top 5. It’s hard to say how low scoring a Justin Herbert offense can be, it really might come down to how comfortable he is with his foot.
• The Las Vegas defense finished the season rated 0.7 points worse than average and added DT Christian Wilkins, who was 9th in pressures and 20th in run stops among interior defenders last year. Wilkins will be a major threat alongside Maxx Crosby, who had 14.5 sacks and led all edge defenders with 38 run stops.
• Antonio Pierce got the job in Last Vegas in large part due to the upset win over Kansas City on Christmas but it’s important to remember the Raiders were rated nearly 4 points worse than average in the market even after that game. The offense ended the season ranked 26th in the market and I don’t think they did anything to get better besides draft Brock Bowers.
• Gardner Minshew certainly didn’t definitively win the starting quarterback job, Pierce seemed reluctant to give it to him. Pierce said, “Myself, Tom Telesco and Luke Getsy discussed it. A lot of things went into it. It wasn’t based off of last night.” referring to Minshews 10 for 21 outing in preseason week 2. I’m operating on the assumption that Minshew and Aidan O’Connell are basically the same.
• Las Vegas is worse along the offensive line after losing two starters in Jermaine Eluemunor and Greg Van Roten. The latter of which ranked 9th in pass blocking efficiency which Cody Whitehair will be unable to match. RT Thayer Munford backed up Eluemunor last season and surrendered a 10% pressure rate compared to Eluemunor’s 5%.
• The Chargers’ defense is mostly the same with minor like-for-like swaps: Eric Kendricks for Denzel Perryman at linebacker and Michael Davis for Kristian Fulton at cornerback.
• The major difference with the Los Angeles defense will be in aggressiveness switching from Brandon Staley calling the plays to Jesse Minter, who was with Harbaugh at Michigan. There are pros and cons to the switch, but I think a major advantage will be unlocking safety Derwin James. James was All-Pro as a rookie, got hurt in year 2, and was never able to recapture his production in Brandon Staley’s system. James graded 53rd in coverage by PFF last year out of 63 qualifying safeties.
• The other strength of this Chargers defense is at edge rush. Khalil Mack, Tuli Tuipulotu, and Bud Dupree combined for 177 pressures in 2023. Joey Bosa has been out most of the last two years, but he’s made the Pro Bowl in every healthy season of his career.
• We are giving Los Angeles the lowest home-field advantage of the week at just 0.8 points.
• Our model favors the Chargers by 3.6 points, with a predicted total of 41.2 points.