Game Analysis

Lean – Las Vegas (+6.5) over LA CHARGERS

Lean – Under 48

· The story of this game is about the players who won’t be on the field. The Chargers are missing RB Austin Ekeler, Pro Bowl S Derwin James, Pro Bowl edge rusher Joey Bosa, Pro Bowl C Corey Linsley, and WR Mike Williams, who was gaining 2.11 adjusted yards per route run (18th).

· The Raiders are missing starting nickelback Nate Hobbs and of course quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Las Vegas backup Aidan O’Connell was one of the best quarterbacks in the preseason. The rookie averaged 7.8 yards per attempt with three touchdowns, no interceptions, and only one sack taken. Garoppolo is only about 2 points better than O’Connell by our numbers.

· The loss of Hobbs will be a huge blow for the Raiders in this matchup. Los Angeles WR Keenan Allen leads the NFL with 204 yards from the slot and has a 69% success rate (4th).

· Las Vegas WR Davante Adams has been targeted on a league-high 38.1% of his routes against single-high coverages under Josh McDaniels but the Chargers call Cover 1 and Cover 3 at below-average rates, 15% and 34% respectively.

· Raiders RT Jermaine Eluemunor surrendered 6 pressures last week versus TJ Watt, but he allowed just 1 pressure in his first two games this season. Eluemunor is fortunate to dodge Bosa on Sunday and the Las Vegas offensive line should be solid. The Raiders led the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency going into last Sunday night.

· Las Vegas edge defender Maxx Crosby ranks 10th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will line up across from Chargers RT Trey Pipkins, who has surrendered the most pressures and sacks on the Los Angeles offensive line.

· The Chargers running backs combined for just 13 carries for 19 yards last game. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore called an RPO or screen on 29% of dropbacks last week as an extension on the run game since Ekeler is out and we should see plenty more of these short routes for Justin Herbert in this matchup. Las Vegas uses soft Quarters coverage at a 17% rate (10th-highest).

· Our model favors the Chargers by 7.0 points, with a predicted total of 45.2 points, but the Chargers apply to a 38-101-2 ATS situation and favorites of more than 3 points coming off their first win of the season (after 0-3 or worse start) are just 11-29-1 ATS.