Las Vegas Raiders @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Dec 12
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 105
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -9.5, Total: 48

Game Analysis

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KANSAS CITY (-9.5) vs Las Vegas

Derek Carr has a 12.9% deep pass rate since week 9, compared to a 16.2% deep pass rate with Henry Ruggs in the lineup, and Carr won’t have time to look downfield in this game. Kansas City Pro Bowl DT Chris Jones has moved back to his more productive spot in the interior after starting the season at edge and he had 5 pressures last week. Rookie RG Alex Leatherwood ranks 55th out of 56 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency and has no chance of stopping Jones. Carr’s safety valve Hunter Renfrow had 7 first downs last Sunday with TE Darren Waller out due to a knee injury, but Renfrow will likely be limited by nickelback L’Jarius Sneed, who is allowing just 0.90 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th). Carr will be forced to get the screen game going as RB Kenyan Drake is averaging 1.71 yards per route run (5th) and the Chiefs are surrendering 7.3 yards per target to opposing running backs.

Tyreek Hill is averaging 2.28 yards per route run in the slot (3rd) and he will battle on the inside with Raiders nickelback Nate Hobbs, who is allowing just 0.87 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd). Kansas City backup RT Andrew Wylie is surrendering an 11.5% pressure rate and he will not be able to protect Patrick Mahomes from edge defender Maxx Crosby, who ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency. Mahomes will have to extend plays outside the pocketĀ for the Chiefs vertical passing attack to work, and it should work if Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley only uses one safety like he did in week 10. Tight end Travis Kelce is averaging 1.81 yards per route run (6th) and Las Vegas has surrendered 810 yards to opposing TEs (30th).

Our model makes Kansas City a 10.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 48.8.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Raiders
  • Chiefs


  • Pass Plays 39.83 38.75
  • Succ Pass Plays 50.4% 48.4%
  • Sack Rate 5.6% 5.6%
  • Int Rate 2.0% 1.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.6% 17.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 48.4% 32.9%
  • NYPP 7.31 5.95


  • Rush Plays 23.00 28.75
  • RB YPR 3.70 4.16
  • Stuff Rate 23.6% 23.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.3% 48.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 38.1% 44.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.83 4.34


  • All Snaps 62.83 67.50
  • Early Down Succ 55.3% 51.1%
  • Succ Rate 50.0% 48.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 46.1% 36.7%
  • Yards Per Play 6.04 5.26
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.36 28.15
  • Run Ratio 36.6% 42.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -1.03 1.03
  • Points 22.83 26.00
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