Game Analysis

Lean – Las Vegas (+7/+7.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

• Colts WR Adonai Mitchell single handedly lost the game last week with a fumble just before entering the end zone while celebrating a 75-yard reception and that was followed by a penalty on a long Jonathan Taylor touchdown run. Mitchell won’t get as many snaps on Sunday with the return of WR Alec Pierce, who was averaging 0.66 EPA/target (7th) before his concussion in week 3.
• Geno Smith has not been accurate this season with his new team with only a 71% Catchable Throw rate (31st) and a 5.5% Turnover Worthy Throw rate (29th). Smith is averaging just 4.8 yppp after averaging 5.9 yppp last year in Seattle.
• Smith will now have to deal with life without starting LT Kolton Miller, who ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency and is worth 1 point.
• Las Vegas LG Dylan Parham ranks 51st in pass blocking efficiency out of 57 qualifiers and he will struggle across from DT DeForest Buckner, who has 12 pressures (11th).
• The Raiders will once again try to lean on the ground game after RB Ashton Jeanty had 21 carries for 144 yards last week. Those were tough yards for the rookie with 90% of them coming after contact. Indianapolis is surrendering a 49% rush success rate (31st).
• Colts nickelback Kenny Moore is out and Rams slot WR Puka Nacua caught 13-of-14 targets for 170 yards caught last week. Las Vegas slot WR Jakobi Meyers will be licking his chops.
• Las Vegas is conceding a 47% success rate to opposing tight ends (6th) and they can contain TE Tyler Warren, who is averaging 0.36 EPA/target (7th).
• Indianapolis has a 44% rush success rate (9th) but they will be limited by a Raiders rush defense allowing -0.28 EPA/rush (2nd).
• Las Vegas has really been selling out to stop the run as they are allowing 32% more yards per attempt versus play action than standard passes (28th) and Daniel Jones will need to utilize the play action game on Sunday. The Colts have a league-high 37% play action rate.
• Raiders’ TE Brock Bowers has been downgraded to out, which makes an impact on our ratings.
• Our model makes Indianapolis a 8.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 46.7 points but the matchups are favorable towards the Raiders and Indy applies to a 50-119-5 ATS situation.