Las Vegas Raiders @

Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Jan 2
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 101
Odds: Indianapolis Colts -8, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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Lean – Las Vegas (+8) over INDIANAPOLIS

The Indianapolis offense will have Carson Wentz available as well as starting right tackle Braden Smith to line up across from edge defender Maxx Crosby, who ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency. Colts backup LT Matt Pryor has conceded just 5 pressures in 190 pass blocking snaps and he will have to hold up against edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue, who has 53 pressures (13th). Jonathan Taylor could be limited by a Las Vegas rush defense ranked 7th.

Derek Carr will not have time in the pocket on Sunday as Indianapolis Pro Bowl interior defender has 45 pressures (8th) and he will line up across from rookie RG Alex Leatherwood, who ranks last in pass blocking efficiency out of 58 qualifying guards. The Raiders will not get back tight end Darren Waller this week and backup Foster Moreau is averaging only 1.11 yards per route run.

Our model favors the Colts by just 3.2 points, with a predicted total of 47.8 points, but the Raiders apply to a 18-79-3 ATS subset of a 61-136-5 ATS road letdown situation that will keep me off Vegas as a play.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Raiders
  • Colts
OAK
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.60 36.40
  • Succ Pass Plays 50.7% 47.8%
  • Sack Rate 5.9% 5.7%
  • Int Rate 2.1% 1.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.4% 18.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.7% 33.9%
  • NYPP 6.99 6.03



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.53 27.67
  • RB YPR 3.78 4.01
  • Stuff Rate 22.4% 24.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.0% 45.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 34.1% 43.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.85 4.18




Game

  • All Snaps 63.13 64.07
  • Early Down Succ 55.4% 49.0%
  • Succ Rate 50.8% 46.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 39.9% 37.1%
  • Yards Per Play 5.82 5.23
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.45 28.96
  • Run Ratio 37.3% 43.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -2.04 2.04
 
  • Points 21.07 25.80
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