Game Analysis

DETROIT (-8) vs Las Vegas

· The outdoor woes struck Jared Goff again as he averaged only 4.4 yppp in the Baltimore wind last week. Goff has five away games without a touchdown since the start of last season compared to only two road games with 2+ touchdowns. Goff will be back at home in a dome this week where he is averaging 7.8 yppp this year.

· Detroit’s offensive line surrendered 2 sacks versus the Ravens after allowing only 4 in the first 6 games and they should get back on track this week. Raiders edge defender Maxx Crosby is responsible for a league-high 41% of his defense’s pressures but he will be shut down by RT Penei Sewell, who leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency.

· Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs is averaging 1.21 yards per route run (9th) but he will be contained by a Las Vegas defense conceding just a 35% pass success rate to running backs (5th).

· Jared Goff will look to the slot if Raiders starting nickelback Nate Hobbs remains out. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has a 61% success rate (13th) and backup Amik Robertson is surrendering a 7.4% explosive pass rate, which ranks 39th out of 43 qualifying nickelbacks.

· Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to play this week after being sidelined in Chicago, where backup Brian Hoyer averaged only 3.7 yppp.

· Las Vegas RT Jermaine Eluemunor has surrendered 5 sacks (2nd-most) and he is currently rotating with backup Thayer Munford. Eluemunor and Munford will struggle across from edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who has 42 pressures (2nd).

· Detroit CB Cameron Sutton is allowing 0.96 yards per cover snap (20th) and he will limit WR Jakobi Meyers, who has a 59% success rate (15th). Garoppolo will look for All-Pro WR Davante Adams.

· Lions first-round rookie LB Jack Campbell moved up the depth chart and played a season-high 90% of Detroit’s defensive snaps. Campbell allowed receptions on all four of his targets for 44 yards and a touchdown last week and Garoppolo can attack him with RB Josh Jacobs, who is gaining 1.57 yards per route run (4th).

· Our model favors the Lions by 6.6 points, with a predicted total of 47.9 points. The matchups do favor Detroit and 8 points is a fair line.