Las Vegas Raiders @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Oct 17
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 269
Odds: Denver Broncos -3.4, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Las Vegas (+3.5) over DENVER

Lean – First Half Under 21.5

The Raiders fired John Gruden earlier this week, which might have a negative effect on their offense. Derek Carr averaged only 5.0 yppp the last time he had offensive coordinator Greg Olson calling the plays, although it was his rookie season and he’s certainly improved significantly since then. This will not be an easy game for Carr and Olson to get on the same page as Denver’s defense ranks 2nd in our ratings.

Rookie RT Alex Leatherwood ranks 55th out of 60 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and has no chance of staying in front of edge defender Von Miller, who has 4.5 sacks (10th). However, Greg Olson has been experimenting with Leatherwood at guard so it might be Brandon Parker at right tackle facing Miller which likely wouldn’t go any better. Parker was not impressive in his first start last week against Khalil Mack as he surrendered 3 pressures along with 3 penalties.

Broncos’ nickelback Bryce Callahan is conceding a league-low 0.35 yards per cover snap in the slot and he will shut down Hunter Renfrow, who is averaging 2.06 yards per route run in slot (6th). TE Darren Waller may also struggle as the Broncos are allowing just 5.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends.

Teddy Bridgewater has a 9.2 yards average depth or target (8th) but the Las Vegas defense ranks 3rd in explosive pass play rate allowed. However, I expect Bridgewater to feature WR Courtland Sutton (2nd in deep receptions) across from Raiders third string CB Amik Robertson, who is being targeted every 4.6 cover snaps. Denver RT Bobby Massie has surrendered 17 pressures and will struggle to stay in front of edge defender Maxx Crosby, who ranks 8th in pass rushing efficiency.

Our model favors the Broncos by only 1.7 points, with a predicted total of 43.7 points. The matchups favor Denver, but the Raiders apply to a 76-28-3 ATS contrary situation while Denver applies to a 128-229-18 ATS early season home favorite situation. The matchups also favor a lower scoring game than the model projects and the first-half under 21.5 points is a better play than the full game under.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Raiders
  • Broncos
OAK
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 44.0 38.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.4% 45.5%
  • Sack Rate 7.0% 6.3%
  • Int Rate 2.0% 0.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 23.7% 16.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 42.2% 26.5%
  • NYPP 7.2 5.8



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.2 29.2
  • RB YPR 3.0 4.2
  • Stuff Rate 31.5% 28.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.0% 45.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.5% 52.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.2 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 68.2 67.2
  • Early Down Succ 49.4% 49.0%
  • Succ Rate 45.7% 45.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.0% 35.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.7 5.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 28.0
  • Run Ratio 35.5% 43.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control -3.4 3.4
 
  • Points 22.6 24.0
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