Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: The side has moved out of Best Bet range.

1-Star Best Bet – *Las Vegas (+1 -105) over DENVER

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (50.5)

The Broncos have been playing without all three of their starting cornerbacks since week 14 after Duke Dawson was injured early in the game against the Panthers. Backups De’Vante Bausby, Michael Ojemudia, and Will Parks have combined to surrender 1.62 yards per cover snap during the last three games. Also, edge defender Bradley Chubb (13th in pass rushing efficiency) missed last week’s game due to an injured ankle and might not be in the lineup again on Sunday. Denver’s pass defense is a shell of itself compared to the preseason (before Von Miller dislocated the peroneal tendon in his ankle) and Derek Carr is averaging 7.2 yards per pass play this season (10th).

Drew Lock averaged only 5.4 yppp last week but Jerry Jeudy had 5 drops against the Chargers after averaging 0.5 drops per game going into last week, so Locks’ numbers should have been significantly better. I expect Jeudy and the Broncos’ pass offense to improve against a Las Vegas defense surrendering 7.0 yppp (27th).

Our model favors the Raiders by 5.3 points, with a predicted total of 56.3 points. The Raiders are a 1-Star Best Bet at -1.5 or better (Strong Opinion at -2) and the Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 51.5 or less (Strong Opinion at 52).

Team Stats
Game Log

Raiders
Broncos

OAK

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.9 37.2
Succ Pass Plays 50.1% 48.6%
Sack Rate 4.4% 3.5%
Int Rate 1.4% 1.7%
Deep Pass Rate 19.2% 16.7%
Big Pass Yards 41.5% 33.9%
NYPP 7.2 7.0

Rush

Rush Plays 28.9 27.1
RB YPR 3.9 4.5
Stuff Rate 21.4% 22.4%
Succ Rush Plays 50.1% 52.2%
Big Rush Yards 41.6% 44.5%
Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.5

Game

All Snaps 64.8 64.3
Early Down Succ 52.1% 50.1%
Succ Rate 50.9% 50.2%
Big Yards Rate 42.4% 39.0%
Yards Per Play 5.9 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.0 27.3
Run Ratio 44.5% 42.3%
Starting Field Pos 29.3 28.4
Game Control -1.3 1.3

Points 26.8 29.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CAR	34 – 30 W	2.6	56.7% / 45.7%	0.0% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 7.4	64.5% / 56.7%	16.1% / 16.7%	4.3 / 4.3	61 / 65	62.0% / 50.0%	60.7% / 50.8%	37.1% / 29.9%	6.1 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	50.8% / 46.2%	32.9 / 26.4
2	NO	34 – 24 W	0.3	58.5% / 55.3%	7.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.3 / 8.2	40.0% / 73.7%	40.0% / 10.5%	3.3 / 5.9	76 / 57	45.6% / 60.9%	50.0% / 61.4%	35.2% / 30.4%	4.9 / 7.4	1.3% / 0.0%	46.1% / 33.3%	26.9 / 26.6
3	@NE	20 – 36 L	-5.7	55.9% / 40.0%	5.9% / 6.7%	0.0% / 3.6%	7.3 / 5.2	50.0% / 57.9%	13.6% / 13.2%	5.7 / 6.6	56 / 68	57.4% / 56.4%	53.6% / 50.0%	44.8% / 52.7%	6.7 / 6.0	5.4% / 0.0%	39.3% / 55.9%	27.7 / 27.9
4	BUF	23 – 30 L	-7.0	54.3% / 57.1%	4.3% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.5 / 7.8	52.2% / 50.0%	26.1% / 37.5%	3.7 / 2.6	69 / 59	53.8% / 54.5%	53.6% / 54.2%	27.7% / 39.3%	5.6 / 5.7	2.9% / 0.0%	33.3% / 40.7%	23.8 / 38.3
5	@KC	40 – 32 W	0.7	50.0% / 39.1%	3.1% / 6.5%	3.2% / 2.3%	10.8 / 7.2	62.9% / 55.0%	11.4% / 25.0%	4.1 / 4.0	67 / 66	59.2% / 44.0%	56.7% / 43.9%	62.9% / 50.4%	7.3 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	52.2% / 30.3%	29.8 / 25.8
7	TB	20 – 45 L	-5.4	51.3% / 57.8%	7.7% / 0.0%	2.8% / 0.0%	6.9 / 8.2	45.8% / 44.0%	25.0% / 36.0%	3.2 / 3.4	63 / 70	52.1% / 52.7%	49.2% / 52.9%	46.7% / 43.6%	5.5 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	38.1% / 35.7%	24.7 / 33.0
8	@CLE	16 – 6 W	2.0	42.3% / 36.0%	7.7% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.9 / 4.9	68.9% / 54.5%	11.1% / 27.3%	4.6 / 4.6	71 / 47	60.4% / 45.7%	59.2% / 44.7%	22.7% / 34.5%	4.4 / 4.7	0.0% / 2.1%	63.4% / 46.8%	27.1 / 26.5
9	@LAC	31 – 26 W	4.3	37.5% / 54.5%	4.2% / 4.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.1	69.2% / 51.6%	19.2% / 12.9%	6.2 / 4.1	50 / 75	55.0% / 54.4%	54.0% / 53.3%	60.0% / 33.2%	6.4 / 5.9	2.0% / 1.3%	52.0% / 41.3%	34.6 / 29.3
10	DEN	37 – 12 W	8.4	48.0% / 40.8%	0.0% / 4.1%	0.0% / 8.5%	6.2 / 5.0	41.5% / 52.6%	9.8% / 21.1%	5.0 / 3.5	66 / 68	45.1% / 42.3%	43.9% / 44.1%	42.6% / 29.1%	5.4 / 4.6	0.0% / 1.5%	62.1% / 27.9%	40.8 / 18.8
11	KC	31 – 35 L	1.6	67.7% / 67.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.2% / 2.2%	8.9 / 7.7	42.3% / 63.0%	15.4% / 14.8%	3.4 / 4.0	57 / 73	55.3% / 68.3%	56.1% / 65.8%	36.3% / 19.3%	6.4 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	45.6% / 37.0%	25.8 / 22.4
12	@ATL	6 – 43 L	-15.2	31.8% / 40.0%	11.4% / 2.5%	2.6% / 2.6%	4.6 / 4.5	28.6% / 28.1%	57.1% / 15.6%	2.9 / 3.9	58 / 72	31.8% / 30.0%	31.0% / 34.7%	21.4% / 18.8%	4.2 / 4.2	6.9% / 0.0%	24.1% / 44.4%	28.6 / 36.8
13	@NYJ	31 – 28 W	0.9	44.9% / 46.2%	4.1% / 11.5%	2.1% / 4.3%	7.5 / 6.5	36.0% / 64.7%	8.0% / 20.6%	2.9 / 6.1	74 / 60	41.4% / 56.9%	41.9% / 56.7%	41.6% / 48.9%	5.9 / 6.3	1.4% / 3.3%	33.8% / 56.7%	35.1 / 27.1
14	IND	27 – 44 L	-7.4	56.5% / 50.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.3% / 0.0%	7.5 / 8.7	45.5% / 45.2%	27.3% / 25.8%	3.6 / 6.8	68 / 59	50.0% / 43.5%	52.9% / 47.5%	45.3% / 71.7%	6.2 / 7.7	1.5% / 0.0%	32.4% / 52.5%	24.0 / 31.2
15	LAC	27 – 30 L	-2.8	47.1% / 57.6%	2.9% / 3.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	8.1 / 9.3	58.5% / 41.4%	24.4% / 31.0%	4.2 / 3.3	75 / 62	54.4% / 48.0%	53.3% / 50.0%	52.6% / 35.6%	6.0 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	54.7% / 46.8%	26.6 / 32.3
16	MIA	25 – 26 L	3.6	48.6% / 42.1%	8.1% / 7.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.5 / 6.7	45.8% / 44.0%	16.7% / 28.0%	4.3 / 5.2	61 / 63	58.3% / 44.4%	47.5% / 42.9%	59.1% / 48.0%	6.9 / 6.1	1.6% / 0.0%	39.3% / 39.7%	30.7 / 24.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	TEN	14 – 16 L	0.4	48.5% / 59.1%	0.0% / 2.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.5 / 5.6	57.7% / 52.9%	30.8% / 20.6%	4.1 / 3.8	59 / 78	57.1% / 59.0%	52.5% / 56.4%	38.4% / 29.2%	5.5 / 4.8	1.7% / 0.0%	44.1% / 43.6%	26.9 / 21.4
2	@PIT	21 – 26 L	-7.1	34.8% / 45.2%	15.2% / 2.4%	2.6% / 2.4%	4.7 / 7.2	42.3% / 40.9%	23.1% / 27.3%	4.0 / 5.0	72 / 64	40.0% / 51.0%	37.5% / 43.8%	57.4% / 49.5%	4.4 / 6.4	1.4% / 1.6%	36.1% / 34.4%	29.9 / 35.1
3	TB	10 – 28 L	-12.6	35.6% / 45.0%	13.3% / 5.0%	5.1% / 0.0%	4.1 / 7.1	35.7% / 52.0%	28.6% / 24.0%	3.0 / 2.7	59 / 65	36.4% / 48.9%	35.6% / 47.7%	34.1% / 42.2%	3.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	23.7% / 38.5%	21.5 / 36.9
4	@NYJ	37 – 28 W	1.6	45.2% / 34.0%	0.0% / 12.0%	9.7% / 0.0%	7.8 / 3.8	28.1% / 54.2%	25.0% / 20.8%	3.7 / 5.4	63 / 74	36.2% / 41.5%	36.5% / 40.5%	60.4% / 44.2%	5.7 / 4.3	0.0% / 0.0%	50.8% / 32.4%	33.1 / 30.3
6	@NE	18 – 12 W	8.4	34.6% / 45.2%	7.7% / 12.9%	8.3% / 7.4%	6.3 / 5.5	48.6% / 44.0%	21.6% / 16.0%	3.6 / 4.7	63 / 56	48.9% / 47.5%	42.9% / 44.6%	49.5% / 29.2%	4.7 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.8%	58.7% / 44.6%	31.7 / 28.5
11	MIA	20 – 13 W	2.6	40.0% / 34.1%	0.0% / 13.6%	3.3% / 2.6%	9.0 / 3.8	42.4% / 52.9%	30.3% / 17.6%	5.7 / 3.3	63 / 61	42.9% / 37.8%	41.3% / 39.3%	58.8% / 26.9%	7.3 / 3.7	1.6% / 0.0%	52.4% / 27.9%	23.5 / 25.7
7	KC	16 – 43 L	-13.9	37.2% / 51.7%	7.0% / 13.8%	5.0% / 0.0%	5.4 / 6.4	66.7% / 36.4%	15.2% / 18.2%	5.4 / 4.6	76 / 51	55.0% / 56.1%	50.0% / 45.1%	38.0% / 50.0%	5.4 / 5.6	2.6% / 2.0%	43.4% / 43.1%	25.1 / 43.1
9	@ATL	27 – 34 L	-12.5	38.8% / 54.1%	2.0% / 5.4%	2.1% / 2.9%	6.2 / 7.3	27.3% / 34.4%	22.7% / 25.0%	4.7 / 2.9	71 / 69	34.0% / 46.3%	35.2% / 44.9%	47.9% / 50.7%	5.7 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	31.0% / 46.4%	23.7 / 36.1
10	@LV	12 – 37 L	-8.4	40.8% / 48.0%	4.1% / 0.0%	8.5% / 0.0%	5.0 / 6.2	52.6% / 41.5%	21.1% / 9.8%	3.5 / 5.0	68 / 66	42.3% / 45.1%	44.1% / 43.9%	29.1% / 42.6%	4.6 / 5.4	1.5% / 0.0%	27.9% / 62.1%	18.8 / 40.8
8	LAC	31 – 30 W	-4.7	37.2% / 45.7%	4.7% / 4.3%	2.4% / 4.5%	5.7 / 6.0	37.5% / 55.3%	25.0% / 13.2%	6.8 / 5.5	59 / 84	38.6% / 52.2%	37.3% / 50.0%	47.9% / 47.2%	5.9 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	27.1% / 45.2%	29.0 / 29.0
12	NO	3 – 31 L	-11.9	10.0% / 26.3%	10.0% / 15.8%	22.2% / 6.3%	1.2 / 3.3	24.2% / 54.5%	39.4% / 15.9%	3.0 / 5.2	43 / 63	24.2% / 45.8%	20.9% / 46.0%	51.8% / 50.7%	2.6 / 4.6	2.3% / 0.0%	76.7% / 69.8%	28.8 / 34.8
13	@KC	16 – 22 L	-0.0	42.9% / 53.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	7.1% / 0.0%	5.4 / 7.6	45.5% / 59.1%	21.2% / 13.6%	5.4 / 6.1	61 / 63	42.6% / 61.5%	44.3% / 55.6%	41.2% / 46.1%	5.4 / 7.1	0.0% / 0.0%	54.1% / 34.9%	22.2 / 27.0
14	@CAR	32 – 27 W	6.9	57.1% / 40.9%	3.6% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.6 / 5.6	43.3% / 57.1%	23.3% / 19.0%	3.2 / 6.0	58 / 65	54.2% / 48.0%	50.0% / 46.2%	61.4% / 44.1%	6.3 / 5.7	1.7% / 0.0%	51.7% / 32.3%	25.8 / 30.4
15	BUF	19 – 48 L	-14.7	48.6% / 56.1%	8.6% / 2.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.3 / 8.6	50.0% / 54.2%	17.9% / 12.5%	5.0 / 7.6	63 / 65	51.0% / 52.9%	49.2% / 55.4%	23.9% / 53.2%	4.0 / 8.2	1.6% / 1.5%	44.4% / 36.9%	24.9 / 32.9
16	@LAC	16 – 19 L	-7.4	38.8% / 42.9%	4.1% / 5.7%	4.3% / 0.0%	5.4 / 6.5	57.1% / 50.0%	14.3% / 20.0%	4.8 / 4.5	77 / 55	45.6% / 50.0%	45.5% / 45.5%	23.0% / 60.4%	5.1 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	36.4% / 36.4%	29.3 / 25.7

Las Vegas Raiders @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Jan 3

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis