Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Over 50.5- Las Vegas at DALLAS

Lean – Las Vegas (+7.5)

Dallas surrendered 5 sacks on non-blitzes last week in the loss to the Chiefs, but I expect the offensive line to be much better on Thanksgiving with LT Tyron Smith back in uniform. Smith led the league in pass blocking efficiency before an ankle injury in week 8. Smith will shut down edge defender Yannick Ngakoue, who has 43 pressures (11th). The Cowboys average 1.3 more yards per rush and 1.4 more yppp with Smith on the field this season.

WR Amari Cooper is out but Dak Prescott should have plenty of time in the pocket to find Michael Gallup downfield across from Raiders CB Brandon Facyson, who is surrendering 1.39 yards per cover snap. I had expected WR CeeDee Lamb to clear the concussion protocol but he is out and is worth about a point.

Las Vegas is averaging 14.3 points per game since losing Henry Ruggs and now the offense is undervalued. The Raiders added DeSean Jackson to replace Ruggs’ speed and he went from 17% snap rate in week 10 to 34% last Sunday when the Raiders averaged 7.1 yppp versus the Bengals. We have Ruggs worth 0.9 points, but Jackson should get even more playing time in this game stretching the field for Derek Carr to find tight end Darren Waller underneath. Dallas is surrendering 8.7 yards per target to opposing TEs and Waller is averaging 1.82 yards per route run (4th).

Our model favors the Cowboys by 4.1 with a predicted total of 53.7 points. The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 50.5 or less.

Team Stats
Game Log

Raiders
Cowboys

OAK

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.60 38.60
Succ Pass Plays 51.5% 47.2%
Sack Rate 5.6% 6.2%
Int Rate 2.4% 1.1%
Deep Pass Rate 21.5% 18.1%
Big Pass Yards 48.8% 31.8%
NYPP 7.31 5.72

Rush

Rush Plays 22.50 29.50
RB YPR 3.71 4.30
Stuff Rate 25.3% 24.1%
Succ Rush Plays 49.8% 49.8%
Big Rush Yards 36.7% 45.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.72 4.48

Game

All Snaps 62.10 68.10
Early Down Succ 56.2% 50.7%
Succ Rate 50.9% 48.3%
Big Yards Rate 46.2% 36.6%
Yards Per Play 6.01 5.18
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.88 28.20
Run Ratio 36.2% 43.3%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control -1.41 1.41

Points 22.30 26.20

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	BLT	33 – 27 W	-4.68	50.8% / 42.4%	5.1% / 9.1%	1.8% / 0.0%	6.93 / 6.58	38.1% / 38.2%	47.6% / 23.5%	3.90 / 5.56	80 / 67	50.0% / 43.4%	47.5% / 40.3%	48.5% / 59.2%	6.14 / 6.06	0.0% / 3.0%	26.3% / 50.7%	31.07 / 25.69
2	@PIT	26 – 17 W	3.62	59.0% / 47.6%	5.1% / 4.8%	0.0% / 2.5%	9.56 / 6.95	40.0% / 35.7%	32.0% / 35.7%	2.08 / 2.79	64 / 56	56.3% / 48.8%	51.6% / 44.6%	43.3% / 43.7%	6.64 / 5.91	0.0% / 0.0%	39.1% / 25.0%	26.20 / 21.90
3	MIA	31 – 28 W	-0.60	45.7% / 43.1%	6.5% / 3.9%	2.3% / 0.0%	7.76 / 3.86	48.6% / 44.4%	22.9% / 22.2%	4.00 / 4.93	81 / 78	46.2% / 45.5%	46.9% / 43.6%	54.8% / 31.3%	6.14 / 4.23	0.0% / 0.0%	43.2% / 34.6%	24.54 / 26.91
4	@LAC	14 – 28 L	-9.59	34.2% / 46.3%	10.5% / 4.9%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.34 / 5.17	38.9% / 61.8%	27.8% / 23.5%	2.67 / 4.94	56 / 75	39.5% / 58.6%	35.7% / 53.3%	33.6% / 35.1%	3.80 / 5.07	0.0% / 0.0%	32.1% / 45.3%	24.42 / 33.50
5	CHI	9 – 20 L	-5.61	42.1% / 47.8%	7.9% / 8.7%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.95 / 4.74	54.5% / 45.9%	27.3% / 37.8%	3.23 / 3.86	60 / 60	55.0% / 48.9%	46.7% / 46.7%	24.9% / 9.5%	4.32 / 4.20	0.0% / 0.0%	36.7% / 61.7%	21.60 / 29.40
6	@DEN	34 – 24 W	9.24	48.3% / 48.1%	6.9% / 9.3%	0.0% / 6.1%	11.72 / 5.72	52.2% / 52.2%	17.4% / 21.7%	3.74 / 4.87	52 / 77	55.0% / 58.2%	50.0% / 49.4%	64.4% / 28.3%	8.19 / 5.47	0.0% / 1.3%	44.2% / 29.9%	34.75 / 22.46
7	PHI	33 – 22 W	7.22	76.5% / 44.4%	0.0% / 5.6%	2.9% / 0.0%	9.50 / 6.19	55.2% / 62.5%	20.7% / 12.5%	4.10 / 4.22	63 / 68	71.7% / 53.8%	66.7% / 52.9%	36.2% / 41.2%	7.02 / 5.26	0.0% / 2.9%	46.0% / 47.1%	39.00 / 23.50
9	@NYG	16 – 23 L	-1.71	53.2% / 43.5%	2.1% / 13.0%	4.3% / 0.0%	6.09 / 4.17	65.0% / 51.6%	15.0% / 16.1%	5.85 / 4.81	67 / 54	62.3% / 50.0%	56.7% / 48.1%	43.1% / 34.4%	6.01 / 4.54	1.5% / 1.9%	29.9% / 57.4%	25.60 / 31.11
10	KC	14 – 41 L	-8.87	54.1% / 56.9%	5.4% / 0.0%	2.9% / 0.0%	6.73 / 8.27	35.7% / 48.0%	21.4% / 24.0%	3.57 / 3.76	51 / 76	57.5% / 50.0%	49.0% / 53.9%	51.4% / 40.7%	5.86 / 6.79	3.9% / 0.0%	27.5% / 32.9%	26.40 / 30.00
11	CIN	13 – 32 L	-3.18	55.2% / 46.9%	6.9% / 9.4%	3.7% / 0.0%	7.10 / 4.03	66.7% / 50.0%	22.2% / 26.3%	4.00 / 4.18	47 / 70	71.1% / 48.1%	59.6% / 48.6%	48.8% / 30.0%	5.91 / 4.11	2.1% / 1.4%	38.3% / 54.3%	0.00 / 0.00

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@TB	29 – 31 L	-3.19	57.6% / 56.0%	1.7% / 0.0%	1.7% / 4.0%	6.63 / 7.58	38.9% / 64.3%	27.8% / 7.1%	3.33 / 3.71	77 / 64	54.2% / 60.4%	53.2% / 57.8%	32.0% / 38.5%	5.86 / 6.73	0.0% / 3.1%	23.4% / 21.9%	26.92 / 32.69
2	@LAC	20 – 17 W	2.86	69.0% / 53.5%	6.9% / 4.7%	3.7% / 4.9%	7.62 / 7.28	64.5% / 52.6%	6.5% / 15.8%	6.39 / 5.00	60 / 62	69.4% / 56.3%	66.7% / 53.2%	40.7% / 40.9%	6.98 / 6.58	0.0% / 0.0%	51.7% / 30.6%	24.63 / 29.29
3	PHI	41 – 21 W	11.98	60.0% / 36.6%	13.3% / 4.9%	0.0% / 5.1%	7.33 / 7.39	56.1% / 33.3%	22.0% / 16.7%	3.90 / 5.33	71 / 53	63.0% / 39.5%	57.7% / 35.8%	25.1% / 46.7%	5.35 / 6.92	1.4% / 0.0%	57.7% / 22.6%	30.69 / 21.33
4	CAR	36 – 28 W	7.10	59.1% / 50.0%	0.0% / 11.4%	0.0% / 5.1%	8.55 / 6.05	55.9% / 62.5%	26.5% / 20.8%	6.76 / 4.71	56 / 68	60.9% / 61.2%	57.1% / 54.4%	55.5% / 42.0%	7.46 / 5.57	0.0% / 0.0%	60.7% / 35.3%	35.73 / 21.45
5	NYG	44 – 20 W	8.12	48.6% / 48.7%	5.7% / 0.0%	3.0% / 5.1%	8.97 / 7.54	48.7% / 32.0%	15.4% / 28.0%	5.15 / 2.92	74 / 64	48.2% / 43.8%	48.6% / 42.2%	52.6% / 38.4%	6.96 / 5.73	1.4% / 0.0%	52.7% / 39.1%	32.70 / 23.42
6	@NE	35 – 29 W	-2.00	52.9% / 52.2%	0.0% / 8.7%	2.0% / 4.8%	8.73 / 9.35	35.5% / 51.9%	29.0% / 18.5%	3.94 / 4.44	82 / 50	50.8% / 57.5%	46.3% / 52.0%	39.7% / 56.4%	6.91 / 6.70	1.2% / 2.0%	37.8% / 54.0%	29.00 / 30.38
8	@MIN	20 – 16 W	-3.37	40.9% / 27.0%	6.8% / 2.7%	2.4% / 0.0%	7.75 / 4.78	41.7% / 37.5%	8.3% / 33.3%	3.25 / 4.21	68 / 61	39.6% / 37.0%	41.2% / 31.1%	43.4% / 45.6%	6.16 / 4.56	1.5% / 0.0%	35.3% / 39.3%	20.91 / 29.83
9	DEN	16 – 30 L	-13.61	34.1% / 43.8%	4.9% / 12.5%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.17 / 6.78	56.3% / 48.8%	18.8% / 29.3%	4.88 / 4.63	57 / 73	47.4% / 46.4%	40.4% / 46.6%	48.4% / 60.8%	5.09 / 5.58	1.8% / 0.0%	28.1% / 56.2%	30.90 / 30.67
10	ATL	43 – 3 W	23.04	57.1% / 31.0%	0.0% / 6.9%	0.0% / 11.1%	9.06 / 3.83	43.2% / 41.7%	21.6% / 20.8%	3.08 / 4.29	72 / 53	49.1% / 46.2%	50.0% / 35.8%	30.2% / 26.5%	5.99 / 4.04	1.4% / 0.0%	51.4% / 45.3%	29.73 / 26.75
11	@KC	9 – 19 L	-9.92	39.6% / 42.5%	10.4% / 7.5%	4.7% / 2.7%	4.04 / 6.10	37.5% / 50.0%	18.8% / 23.1%	5.13 / 4.85	64 / 66	41.7% / 50.0%	39.1% / 45.5%	10.4% / 45.1%	4.31 / 5.61	1.6% / 1.5%	25.0% / 39.4%	0.00 / 0.00

Las Vegas Raiders @

Dallas Cowboys

Thu, Nov 25

1:30 PM Pacific

Game Analysis