Las Vegas Raiders @ Cleveland Browns Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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CLEVELAND (-2.5) vs Las Vegas

Baker Mayfield started last week’s game against the Bengals 0-for-5 with an interception but then completed 22 of his next 23 attempts and the only incompletion was a spike. Mayfield did not take a sack for the first time all season and he should have plenty of time to survey the field again on Sunday as Las Vegas is generating pressure on just 24% of pass rushing snaps (27th). The Raiders have surrendered the 2nd-highest explosive pass percentage (31%) to opposing WRs but the Browns won’t have Odell Beckham, who tore his ACL last week and is worth 0.8 points to the offense.

Derek Carr finished 2019 with the NFL’s highest checkdown percentage (11%) but he has been more willing to take deep shots this season, especially with rookie WR Henry Ruggs in the lineup. Last week, Carr completed three passes with at least 20 air yards. Cleveland’s defense has allowed the second-most yards to slot receivers this year, which provides a good matchup for Hunter Renfrow on the inside (Carr’s most targeted WR). RT Trent Brown will likely remain on the covid-19 list this week, which allows Browns’ disruptive edge-rusher Myles Garrett to line up across from either Brandon Parker or Sam Young. The backup tackles have combined to surrender a 6.3% pressure rate, which isn’t too bad, but is far worse than Brown’s elite pass-blocking numbers. Garrett leads the league with 9 sacks thus far but the Browns rank just 18th in pressure rate, so Carr will have time to throw if Garrett is held in check.

Our model makes Cleveland a 4.0-point favorite with a predicted total of 50.0 points (updated based on weather report from Sunday morning), but I think the matchups favor the Raiders.

Team Stats
Game Log

Raiders
Browns

OAK

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.0 34.3
Succ Pass Plays 57.0% 47.0%
Sack Rate 4.4% 3.2%
Int Rate 0.0% 2.1%
Deep Pass Rate 17.3% 15.1%
Big Pass Yards 37.1% 28.2%
NYPP 7.2 6.9

Rush

Rush Plays 29.3 29.0
RB YPR 4.5 5.6
Stuff Rate 23.3% 13.5%
Succ Rush Plays 51.5% 62.7%
Big Rush Yards 43.6% 48.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 5.6

Game

All Snaps 64.3 63.3
Early Down Succ 55.0% 55.7%
Succ Rate 54.7% 54.1%
Big Yards Rate 39.0% 37.7%
Yards Per Play 5.9 6.5
Fumble Lost Rate 2.2% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.9 27.3
Run Ratio 45.4% 45.1%
Starting Field Pos 29.2 27.0
Game Control -0.9 0.9

Points 29.3 30.0

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CAR	34 – 30 W	2.6	56.7% / 45.7%	0.0% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 7.4	64.5% / 56.7%	16.1% / 16.7%	4.3 / 4.3	61 / 65	62.0% / 50.0%	60.7% / 50.8%	37.1% / 29.9%	6.1 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	50.8% / 46.2%	32.9 / 26.4
2	NO	34 – 24 W	0.3	58.5% / 55.3%	7.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.3 / 8.2	40.0% / 73.7%	40.0% / 10.5%	3.3 / 5.9	76 / 57	45.6% / 60.9%	50.0% / 61.4%	35.2% / 30.4%	4.9 / 7.4	1.3% / 0.0%	46.1% / 33.3%	26.9 / 26.6
3	@NE	20 – 36 L	-5.7	55.9% / 40.0%	5.9% / 6.7%	0.0% / 3.6%	7.3 / 5.2	50.0% / 57.9%	13.6% / 13.2%	5.7 / 6.6	56 / 68	57.4% / 56.4%	53.6% / 50.0%	44.8% / 52.7%	6.7 / 6.0	5.4% / 0.0%	39.3% / 55.9%	27.7 / 27.9

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@BAL	6 – 38 L	-16.2	36.6% / 57.1%	4.9% / 7.1%	2.6% / 0.0%	4.1 / 9.6	48.1% / 40.0%	18.5% / 26.7%	5.1 / 3.6	68 / 58	48.1% / 47.8%	41.2% / 48.3%	49.3% / 50.4%	4.5 / 6.5	2.9% / 1.7%	39.7% / 51.7%	21.3 / 43.8
2	CIN	35 – 30 W	7.1	47.8% / 48.4%	0.0% / 4.7%	4.3% / 0.0%	9.5 / 4.5	60.0% / 62.5%	11.4% / 25.0%	6.1 / 2.8	58 / 88	56.5% / 51.6%	55.2% / 52.3%	54.6% / 6.5%	7.5 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.1%	60.3% / 27.3%	38.3 / 25.3
3	WAS	34 – 20 W	2.4	56.0% / 40.0%	8.0% / 7.5%	0.0% / 8.1%	5.7 / 5.2	43.2% / 50.0%	27.0% / 13.6%	4.3 / 4.7	62 / 62	51.1% / 42.0%	48.4% / 43.5%	27.7% / 37.2%	4.8 / 5.0	0.0% / 3.2%	59.7% / 35.5%	40.0 / 26.8

Las Vegas Raiders @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Nov 1

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis