Game Analysis

Note: The total dropped a couple of points since we released this play and it no longer qualifies.

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (46) – CINCINNATI (-7) vs Las Vegas

• Cincinnati’s offense will likely be without starting left tackle Orlando Brown and WR Tee Higgins, who is averaging 0.46 EPA/target (16th).
• Chiefs’ RT Jawaan Taylor allowed zero pressures against Maxx Crosby across 28 pass blocking snaps last week but Crosby will have a much more favorable matchup on Sunday across from Bengals rookie right tackle Amarius Mims.
• The Raiders will also get Crosby pass-rushing reps on the other side versus Cincinnati’s backup LT Cody Ford, who is surrendering a 13% pressure rate. Ford is a 1.2-point downgrade from starting LT Orlando Brown, who ranks 7th in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Las Vegas edge rusher Maxx Crosby has 6.5 sacks (7th) and he should get one or two more this Sunday on Joe Burrow.
• Gardner Minshew’s top receiver targets are TE Brock Bowers and WR Jakobi Meyers, who are averaging 0.48 EPA/target (14th). However, Meyers will be limited on the inside against Bengals nickelback Mike Hilton, who is conceding 1.01 yards per cover snap in the slot (10th).
• The Raiders’ screen game will also be contained. Raiders RB Alexander Mattison is averaging 1.49 yards per route run (6th) but Cincinnati’s defense is conceding a 41% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (9th).
• Our model favors the Bengals by 10.4 points, with a predicted total of 41.9 points.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 45.5 or more (Strong Opinion at 45).