Las Vegas Raiders @

Cincinnati Bengals

Sat, Jan 15
1:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 141
Odds: Cincinnati Bengals -5.5, Total: 49

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Las Vegas (+6.5) over CINCINNATI

Lean – Under (49)

Player Prop Play – Ja’Marr Chase Under 72.5 Receiving Yards (70 or more)

Cincinnati defeated the Raiders 32-13 in week 11 but Las Vegas outgained Cincinnati by 1.8 yards per play. The Bengals converted half their third downs while the Raiders were 14% on third down with two turnovers, which is mostly random. Joe Burrow averaged just 4.0 yards per pass play against the Las Vegas defense and it likely won’t get much better in the playoffs. Burrow is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt versus a standard rush compared to 10.8 ypa versus the blitz and the Raiders blitz at the lowest rate in the league (12%).

Pro Bowl Las Vegas edge rusher Maxx Crosby had 10 pressures last Sunday night, five of which were a sack or a hit. Cincinnati starting right tackle Riley Reiff is out for the season due to an ankle injury and Crosby will line up across from backup Isaiah Prince, whose 8.7% pressure rate is considerably higher than Reiff’s 5.3% pressure rate allowed. Bengals LG Quinton Spain has allowed 23 pressures in 611 pass blocking snaps while RG Hakeem Adeniji has surrendered the same amount of pressures in 350 pass blocking snaps, which is bad news for Burrow as Adeniji will go against Raiders interior defender Quinton Jefferson, who ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency.

Ja’Marr Chase is averaging 2.51 yards per route run (5th) but he will be blanketed by Las Vegas CB Casey Hayward, who is allowing a reception on a league-leading one out of 21.0 cover snaps. Raiders’ cornerback CB Brandon Facyson is being targeted every 4.8 cover snaps and Burrow will look for wide receiver Tee Higgins, who is averaging 2.26 yards per route run (8th).

I do not believe we will see much from RB Joe Mixon as the Bengals ground game ranks 26th and Las Vegas has the 11th-rated rush defense.

Derek Carr’s favorite receivers TE Darren Waller and WR Hunter Renfrow are averaging 16 targets per game combined. Cincinnati’s defense was one of eight in the league to allow 1000 yards to opposing TEs. Waller is averaging 1.74 yards per route run (6th) and had a season-high 116 receiving yards against the Bengals and should have another good game against the Bengals. Renfrow is averaging 1.73 yards per route run in the slot (6th) and Mike Hilton has surrendered 549 yards at nickelback (2nd-most).

Cincinnati’s defense had a 24.5% pressure rate (15th) which is likely to be lower in this game. Bengals Pro Bowl DE Trey Hendrickson had 14.0 sacks this year (5th) but I expect his impact to be minimized versus LT Kolton Miller, who was the 8th-most valuable tackle this season and should hold Hendrickson to 4 pressures at most. Raiders RT Brandon Parker is surrendering a 10.2% pressure rate, but Cincinnati edge defender Sam Hubbard ranks just 41st in pass rushing efficiency.

Our model favors the Bengals by just 1.4 points, with a predicted total of 45.1 points. Las Vegas is a 1-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more (Strong Opinion down to +5).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Raiders
  • Bengals
OAK
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.29 37.71
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.7% 47.0%
  • Sack Rate 6.0% 5.5%
  • Int Rate 2.2% 1.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.1% 18.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.3% 33.3%
  • NYPP 6.84 5.91



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.35 27.12
  • RB YPR 3.82 4.06
  • Stuff Rate 22.9% 24.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.7% 46.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 36.0% 44.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.91 4.20




Game

  • All Snaps 63.65 64.82
  • Early Down Succ 54.1% 48.8%
  • Succ Rate 50.1% 46.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 40.0% 36.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.72 5.19
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.63 28.53
  • Run Ratio 38.3% 41.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.82 27.07
  • Game Control -1.30 1.30
 
  • Points 22.00 25.82
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