Game Analysis

Las Vegas (-3) vs CHICAGO

Lean – Under (37.5)

· Chicago would own both the first and second picks in the draft if the season ended today and it looks like starting quarterback Justin Fields will be out for a while with Tyson Bagent getting the nod to start behind center.

· Bagent is an undrafted rookie out of Division II Shepherd University and is unlikely to match Fields’ -0.05 EPA/play (25th).

· Fields has connected on 50% of his passes with 20+ air yards and he has run for 237 yards, which ranks 3rd among quarterbacks. The deep passing game and mobility of Fields cannot be replicated by Bagent, which leaves only the worst parts of the Bears offense.

· Bears RT Darnell Wright has allowed multiple pressures in every game and the rookie will struggle against edge defender Maxx Crosby, who ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency and has not missed a snap in three straight weeks.

· Las Vegas backup QB Brian Hoyer went in and averaged 10.2 yppp last week but I think he comes back to earth on Sunday. The last season Hoyer got significant snaps was 2017 with the 49ers and he gained only 5.1 yppp with Kyle Shanahan. Remember Jimmy Garoppolo averaged 8.1 yppp on the same team and the gap between the quarterbacks is 2.6 points according to our metrics.

· Chicago’s secondary has improved with starting safety Eddie Jackson back on the field and starting nickelback Kyler Gordon is averaging 0.76 yards per slot cover snap fewer than backup Greg Stroman did while Gordon recovered from his broken hand.

· Bears top cornerback Jaylon Johnson was sidelined for two games but he is conceding only 0.77 yards per cover snap (9th) and he will contain WR Jakobi Meyers, who has a 63% success rate (13th).

· Meanwhile, Davante Adams is gaining 0.50 EPA/target (15th) and he has a favorable matchup across from Chicago rookie CB Tyrique Stevenson.

· The Raiders are targeting running backs on 26.7% of passes (2nd-most) and I expect plenty of Hoyer checkdowns as the Bears are allowing 0.42 EPA/target to running backs (31st).

· Our model makes Las Vegas a 1.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 34.3 points.