Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (47.5) – BUFFALO (-9.5) vs Las Vegas

· Josh Allen completed only 2 of his 7 passes that had 15+ air yards with 3 interceptions in week 1 versus the Jets. Defensive-minded head coach Sean McDermott will want Allen to be more conservative with the football this week, especially as nearly double-digit favorites, which would kneecap Buffalo’s explosive offense.

· Bills RT Spencer Brown surrendered 5 pressures last week (8th-most) and he will not be able to contain edge defender Maxx Crosby, who has been an excellent pass-rusher in his career and ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Buffalo’s offense ran more two tight end sets than any team in week 1. Rookie TE Dalton Kincaid had 55 snaps which meant it was mostly just Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs at wide receiver.

· Diggs took nearly half his snaps in the slot with Davis lining up at boundary WR. The Raiders should be able to make life difficult for Diggs if the Bills once again mostly only use two wide receivers. Nate Hobbs conceded just 0.95 yards per slot cover snap in week 1 and the nickelback will battle with Diggs on the inside. Meanwhile, Las Vegas CB Marcus Peters won’t be afraid to jump those out routes from Diggs when he is on the boundary.

· The Raiders were one of three offenses to not use 11 personnel (3 WRs) on more than half of their week 1 snaps. Buffalo’s defense is one of the few units in the NFL that isn’t afraid to match up heavier personnel with Nickel. Bills nickelback Taron Johnson played 69% of snaps against the Jets and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get more than half the snaps again even if Las Vegas uses a lot of multiple tight ends or put the fullback on the field.

· Lighter boxes would encourage Josh McDaniels to pound the rock and I expect a slow-moving methodical Las Vegas offense on Sunday. The Bills surrendered a 44% rush success rate in week 1 (28th) and I think there are plenty of scenarios where the Raiders end up with more runs than passes for the second straight week.

· Buffalo’s defense had a 46% pressure rate on Zach Wilson, and they can clearly get after the quarterback even without Von Miller.

· Las Vegas’s new WR Jakobi Meyers gained 3.38 yards per route run in week 1 (6th) but it looks like he’ll be out with a concussion. Our metrics value Meyers at 0.4 points to the Raiders offense.

· Our model favors the Bills by 8.9 points, with a predicted total of 42.7 points, and the Under is a Strong Opinion at 47 points or more.