Kansas City Chiefs @

Washington Football Team

Sun, Oct 17
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 257
Odds: Washington Football Team +6.5, Total: 55

Game Analysis

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Lean – WASHINGTON (+6.5) over Kansas City

Kansas City’s defense is the reason for the Chiefs’ slow start and there aren’t many avenues for improvement until Chris Jones (wrist) can return to the field to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks (he’s been downgraded to out). Kansas City’s defensive line only had 5 pressures with Jones on the sideline last week and won’t be able to get a pass rush if the Pro Bowl defensive tackle is unavailable again on Sunday.

Chiefs’ CB Mike Hughes is surrendering a reception every 7.6 cover snaps which ranks 74th out of 80 qualifying CBs and he will struggle when lined up across from Terry McLaurin, who has 49 targets (8th). I expect Taylor Heinicke to find Hughes before every snap while also being aware of S Daniel Sorensen, who has surrendered 284 receiving yards, which is 66 more yards than the next worst safety.

Washington’s ground game ranks 4th and Kansas City’s rush defense is last in the NFL according to our numbers.

Tyreek Hill saw 14 targets but had only a single explosive pass play last week, but the All-Pro wide receiver should get back on track in this matchup. I expect Patrick Mahomes to find Hill and TE Travis Kelce downfield against safety Landon Collins, who surrendered more than 140 yards and two touchdowns in coverage against the Saints.

Chiefs LG Joe Thuney ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency but he played through a fractured hand last week and Kansas City’s offseason signing could struggle with a cast to contain interior defender Jonathan Allen, who has 18 pressures (5th).

Our model favors the Chiefs by 3.9 points, with a predicted total of 54.7 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chiefs
  • Football Team
KC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.4 34.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 61.4% 54.4%
  • Sack Rate 3.3% 3.8%
  • Int Rate 3.0% 2.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.2% 19.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 32.2% 46.9%
  • NYPP 7.9 9.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.0 27.0
  • RB YPR 4.3 4.6
  • Stuff Rate 15.1% 19.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 60.8% 60.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 33.4% 40.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.8 5.1




Game

  • All Snaps 65.4 61.6
  • Early Down Succ 62.6% 60.2%
  • Succ Rate 60.9% 57.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 35.3% 45.2%
  • Yards Per Play 6.7 7.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.2 28.9
  • Run Ratio 38.6% 44.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 0.8 -0.8
 
  • Points 30.8 32.6
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