Game Analysis
1-Star Best Bet – *Kansas City (-5.5) over TENNESSEE
Kansas City’s offense continues to run through WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce with the pair combining for 17 receptions and 175 yards last week. Patrick Mahomes will likely be looking for his All-Pro wide receiver more than his All-Pro tight end in this matchup as the Titans are conceding just 4.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends (2nd). Tyreek Hill is averaging 2.78 yards per route run in the slot (3rd) while Tennessee nickelback Chris Jackson is banged-up with a foot injury and was in and out of the lineup last week. Backup nickelback Elijah Molden is allowing 1.07 yards per slot cover snap more than Jackson this year. The Titans are down two outside CBs in Kristian Fulton (hamstring) and Caleb Farley (torn ACL) and Titans’ secondary is likely to struggle against Mahomes and company.
Chiefs’ RT Lucas Niang is surrendering a 9% pressure rate and will struggle to stay in front of Titans’ edge defender Harold Landry (4th in pass rushing efficiency). Tennessee interior defender Jeffery Simmons has 22 pressures (4th) but he will be contained by LG Joe Thuney, who ranks 4th in pass blocking efficiency.
Kansas City’s rush defense is a point worse than average by our metrics, but the Titans would likely run less if they fall behind, which I suspect they will.
Ryan Tannehill likely won’t have blindside protection from starting LT Taylor Lewan and he may once again be without star WR Julio Jones for this game. Jones is averaging 2.39 yards per route run in limited action but suffered a setback with his hamstring injury in the 4th quarter against the Bills. Lewan was carted off the field last Monday night and backup tackle Ty Sambrailo retired last week.
Chiefs interior defender Chris Jones leads the team with 15 pressures despite missing the last two games. It looks like Jones will be back on the field for Kansas City and will enjoy taking on backup tackle Kendall Lamm, who has surrendered 3 pressures in just 21 pass blocking snaps.
Our model favors the Chiefs by 8.9 points, with a predicted total of 57.4 points and Kansas City is a 1-Star Best Bet at -5.5 -115 odds or better.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
43.86
34.43
-
Succ Pass Plays
59.1%
53.7%
-
Sack Rate
4.2%
3.2%
-
Int Rate
3.0%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.7%
20.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.6%
43.6%
-
NYPP
7.35
8.38
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.71
27.00
-
RB YPR
4.29
4.38
-
Stuff Rate
17.1%
18.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
61.0%
59.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
36.6%
34.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.84
4.77
Game
-
All Snaps
67.57
61.43
-
Early Down Succ
60.6%
57.3%
-
Succ Rate
59.0%
55.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.5%
41.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.39
6.62
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.5%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.84
29.37
-
Run Ratio
35.4%
44.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-1.29
1.29
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.00
40.29
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.8%
45.7%
-
Sack Rate
7.5%
6.0%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.6%
17.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.0%
44.4%
-
NYPP
5.93
7.02
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.71
22.86
-
RB YPR
4.51
4.60
-
Stuff Rate
24.8%
23.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.3%
57.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.6%
33.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.79
4.52
Game
-
All Snaps
68.71
63.14
-
Early Down Succ
51.1%
52.6%
-
Succ Rate
48.9%
49.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.4%
41.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.53
5.99
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.57
26.57
-
Run Ratio
48.0%
36.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
1.31
-1.31
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CLV |
33 – 29 W |
-5.25 |
60.5% /
60.0% |
5.3% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
8.53 /
10.13 |
56.5% /
76.0% |
21.7% /
8.0% |
3.17 /
6.12 |
61 /
55 |
57.4% /
72.7% |
59.0% /
67.3% |
36.3% /
48.3% |
6.51 /
8.31 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
37.7% /
45.5% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 2 |
@BLT |
35 – 36 L |
16.80 |
64.5% /
59.3% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
3.2% /
7.7% |
11.06 /
8.52 |
50.0% /
68.3% |
22.2% /
17.1% |
3.44 /
6.12 |
49 /
68 |
65.1% /
66.1% |
59.2% /
64.7% |
43.7% /
48.6% |
8.27 /
7.07 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
36.7% /
60.3% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 3 |
LAC |
24 – 30 L |
-3.88 |
54.3% /
53.8% |
4.3% /
2.6% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
5.46 /
7.05 |
69.0% /
40.9% |
3.4% /
27.3% |
6.00 /
3.50 |
75 /
61 |
60.9% /
52.1% |
60.0% /
49.2% |
29.7% /
32.1% |
5.67 /
5.77 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
36.1% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 4 |
@PHI |
42 – 30 W |
4.73 |
77.4% /
52.9% |
3.2% /
5.9% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
8.74 /
7.02 |
71.9% /
68.4% |
6.3% /
10.5% |
6.25 /
5.42 |
63 /
70 |
73.1% /
61.1% |
74.6% /
57.1% |
47.7% /
32.4% |
7.48 /
6.59 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
27.1% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 5 |
BUF |
20 – 38 L |
-8.36 |
50.0% /
46.2% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
4.86 /
12.12 |
56.5% /
50.0% |
21.7% /
35.7% |
5.22 /
4.32 |
79 /
54 |
56.3% /
48.8% |
51.9% /
48.1% |
18.9% /
64.7% |
4.96 /
8.07 |
1.3% /
1.9% |
29.1% /
51.9% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 6 |
@WAS |
31 – 13 W |
4.72 |
54.0% /
38.5% |
6.0% /
0.0% |
4.3% /
2.6% |
7.80 /
4.67 |
46.4% /
63.2% |
21.4% /
10.5% |
3.89 /
4.95 |
78 /
58 |
49.1% /
45.5% |
51.3% /
46.6% |
40.7% /
23.6% |
6.40 /
4.76 |
1.3% /
1.7% |
35.9% /
32.8% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 7 |
@TEN |
3 – 27 L |
-17.81 |
52.7% /
65.5% |
7.3% /
3.4% |
2.0% /
3.6% |
4.67 /
9.17 |
76.9% /
48.6% |
23.1% /
22.9% |
5.92 /
2.94 |
68 /
64 |
62.3% /
54.9% |
57.4% /
56.3% |
31.2% /
38.9% |
4.91 /
5.77 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
19.1% /
54.7% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
ARZ |
13 – 38 L |
-15.57 |
42.9% /
41.2% |
14.3% /
5.9% |
2.8% /
3.1% |
3.86 /
8.24 |
45.5% /
53.1% |
36.4% /
21.9% |
3.91 /
4.03 |
64 /
66 |
50.0% /
46.2% |
43.8% /
47.0% |
24.3% /
47.4% |
3.88 /
6.20 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
34.4% /
48.5% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 2 |
@SEA |
33 – 30 W |
-5.49 |
53.5% /
41.2% |
7.0% /
8.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.44 /
9.41 |
52.5% /
55.6% |
22.5% /
22.2% |
5.30 /
4.28 |
83 /
52 |
57.6% /
51.3% |
53.0% /
46.2% |
31.3% /
58.6% |
6.41 /
7.63 |
1.2% /
0.0% |
48.2% /
34.6% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 3 |
IND |
25 – 16 W |
4.29 |
53.6% /
30.8% |
3.6% /
5.1% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
6.71 /
4.56 |
37.8% /
61.1% |
27.0% /
16.7% |
4.86 /
4.83 |
65 /
57 |
42.3% /
42.9% |
44.6% /
40.4% |
39.8% /
30.6% |
5.66 /
4.65 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
56.9% /
31.6% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 4 |
@NYJ |
24 – 27 L |
1.09 |
41.1% /
45.7% |
12.5% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
4.52 /
8.26 |
51.4% /
48.0% |
18.9% /
36.0% |
4.78 /
2.64 |
93 /
60 |
50.7% /
47.8% |
45.2% /
46.7% |
33.9% /
57.3% |
4.62 /
5.92 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.8% /
41.7% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 5 |
@JAX |
37 – 19 W |
9.28 |
40.0% /
54.3% |
12.0% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
7.36 /
7.31 |
63.9% /
61.3% |
13.9% /
19.4% |
5.11 /
6.39 |
61 /
66 |
57.4% /
65.4% |
54.1% /
57.6% |
45.9% /
41.4% |
6.03 /
6.88 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
59.0% /
47.0% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 6 |
BUF |
34 – 31 W |
-2.27 |
44.8% /
54.0% |
0.0% /
6.0% |
3.4% /
2.1% |
7.45 /
6.70 |
45.5% /
43.5% |
31.8% /
21.7% |
6.64 /
3.57 |
51 /
73 |
45.0% /
52.6% |
45.1% /
50.7% |
54.7% /
26.4% |
7.10 /
5.71 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
31.5% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
| 7 |
KC |
27 – 3 W |
17.81 |
65.5% /
52.7% |
3.4% /
7.3% |
3.6% /
2.0% |
9.17 /
4.67 |
48.6% /
76.9% |
22.9% /
23.1% |
2.94 /
5.92 |
64 /
68 |
54.9% /
62.3% |
56.3% /
57.4% |
38.9% /
31.2% |
5.77 /
4.91 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
54.7% /
19.1% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
Kansas City Chiefs
@ 
Tennessee Titans