Kansas City Chiefs @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Nov 10
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 251
Odds: Tennessee Titans +6, Total: 48

Game Analysis

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Lean – TENNESSEE (+6) over Kansas City

Patrick Mahomes will be back under center on Sunday after missing the last 2 games as the Chiefs travel to Tennessee before heading to Mexico City next week. Sammy Watkins is one of 16 qualifying wide receivers to average at least 2 yards per route run and Tyreek Hill is gaining 2.88 yards per route run, which would rank 3rd if he qualified. Both Watkins and Hill are taking about half their snaps on the inside and should exploit Logan Ryan, who is surrendering 1.42 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th-worst). Outside cornerback Adoree’ Jackson has been excellent, conceding only 0.75 yards per cover snap (6th), but the Titans will be without second cornerback Malcolm Butler in this game. Mahomes throws 16.2% of his passes with 20+ air yards (4th-highest) but the deep ball likely won’t be available in this matchup as Kevin Byard is one of the best centerfield safeties in the NFL.

Ryan Tannehill has been phenomenal thus far leading the league in expected completion percentage above expectation according to Next Gen Stats. Furthermore, Tannehill has been pushing the ball downfield and is averaging 1.5 more air yards per attempt than Marcus Mariota. Rookie wide receiver AJ Brown is gaining 2 yards per route run in 3 games with Tannehill and backup tight end Jonnu Smith is averaging 2.50 yards per route run filling in for Delanie Walker. Tannehill should face more pressure than usual up the middle, as KC’s DT Chris Jones’ 16% pass rush win rate ranks 7th among interior defenders and he’s registered at least 3 pressures every game he’s suited up. Tennessee’s interior offensive line may be the worst in the NFL with the guards combining to allow 14 sacks and center Ben Jones could miss this game with a concussion. The Titans have the 5th-highest adjusted run play rate and have a clear tendency with 23 more attempts to the right than to the left. However, this strategy won’t work against Kansas City’s defense because the edge defender on that side, Emmanuel Ogbah, has a 9.9% run stop rate (9th) and should get more snaps in this game with Alex Okafor dealing with an ankle injury.

Mahomes may be forced into more underneath routes to Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce in this matchup. The Chiefs have a mediocre rush defense but I’m not expecting Tennessee’s ground game to dominate, especially if they fall behind early. Our model favors Kansas City by 5.1 points, with a predicted total of 45.6 points, and I’ll lean with the Titans based on a 75-36-4 ATS home underdog bounce-back situation that applies to Tennessee off their 10-point loss at Carolina and a 36-97-2 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s upset win over Minnesota.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chiefs
  • Titans
KC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.7 38.9
  • Succ Pass Plays 51.0% 45.7%
  • Sack Rate 4.4% 7.1%
  • Int Rate 0.3% 1.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 23.3% 19.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 48.5% 39.0%
  • NYPP 7.8 6.0



Rush


  • Rush Plays 21.0 29.1
  • RB YPR 4.1 4.7
  • Stuff Rate 24.6% 15.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.3% 53.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 44.0% 36.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.9




Game

  • All Snaps 59.7 68.0
  • Early Down Succ 52.6% 52.0%
  • Succ Rate 50.4% 49.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 49.2% 39.7%
  • Yards Per Play 6.5 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 28.5
  • Run Ratio 34.9% 41.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.5 28.0
  • Game Control 3.9 -3.9
 
  • Points 28.0 22.7
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