Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: The first half Over is out of range. The Alternate play is 1-Star on the game over 55.5 or less, which is also now out of range (Strong Opinion Over 56).

2-Star Best Bet – **First Half Over (26.5)

Lean – TAMPA BAY (+3.5) over Kansas City

Tampa Bay’s offense is underrated due to averaging only 3.9 yppl against the Saints and Rams during two prime-time games in the past three weeks when everyone was watching. However, the Buccaneers have the 4th-rated offense by our metrics and they have the potential to get even better as Chris Godwin gets healthier and Antonio Brown is meshed into this passing attack. A huge issue for Tom Brady and Tampa Bay’s offense has been the injury to LG Ali Marpet, who has sat out the last three games with a concussion. Rarely does a player miss an extended period of time with a concussion and I would think Marpet has a good chance of returning to the field this week. Marpet ranks second in pass blocking efficiency among guards and he will be crucial limiting DT Chris Jones (42 pressures).

Tyreek Hill is taking 59% of his snaps in the slot this season and I expect Patrick Mahomes to be looking for his Pro Bowl wide receiver when he’s lined up on the inside. Bucs’ NB Sean Murphy-Bunting is surrendering 1.68 yards per cover snap in the slot, which ranks 26th out of 27 qualifying nickelbacks. RT Mike Remmers ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency filling in for Mitchell Schwartz and he will contain edge defender Shaquil Barrett, who only trails Aaron Donald this season in total pressures (55).

Our model favors the Chiefs by 1.7 points with a predicted total of 59.5 points. There is more value in the first half total because these offensive coaching staff like to come out firing. Tampa Bay and Kansas City are two of the few teams in the NFL averaging more points in the opening half than second half both this year and in 2019. The 1^st-Half Over 26.5 was a 2-Star Best Bet at -115 odds or less and the alternate play is a 1-Star Best Bet Over 55.5 or less (Strong Opinion Over 56).

I’ll also lean with Tampa Bay, as Tom Brady is a 54-15 straight up and 47-22 ATS in his career in games following a loss, including an incredible 19-2 SU and 20-1 ATS from -2 to dog (3-0 SU as a dog of more than 3 points).

Team Stats
Game Log

Chiefs
Buccaneers

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.4 35.8
Succ Pass Plays 56.6% 46.3%
Sack Rate 3.5% 5.2%
Int Rate 0.4% 2.9%
Deep Pass Rate 15.3% 19.4%
Big Pass Yards 37.0% 32.5%
NYPP 7.6 6.2

Rush

Rush Plays 25.9 28.8
RB YPR 4.0 4.4
Stuff Rate 20.6% 11.9%
Succ Rush Plays 49.8% 57.2%
Big Rush Yards 39.8% 33.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.7

Game

All Snaps 65.3 64.6
Early Down Succ 55.5% 53.6%
Succ Rate 53.7% 51.1%
Big Yards Rate 40.6% 35.3%
Yards Per Play 6.3 5.4
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.7 28.5
Run Ratio 39.4% 44.4%
Starting Field Pos 29.2 25.6
Game Control 4.4 -4.4

Points 32.1 21.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	HOU	34 – 20 W	8.0	66.7% / 55.6%	3.0% / 11.1%	0.0% / 3.1%	6.2 / 6.7	47.1% / 59.1%	20.6% / 9.1%	4.9 / 5.4	67 / 58	56.6% / 59.6%	56.7% / 56.9%	19.0% / 33.3%	5.5 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	50.7% / 37.9%	37.2 / 22.3
2	@LAC	23 – 20 W	-5.4	41.7% / 51.4%	2.1% / 5.7%	0.0% / 3.0%	6.0 / 8.5	54.5% / 63.6%	9.1% / 13.6%	5.7 / 4.2	70 / 79	44.4% / 61.9%	45.7% / 58.2%	41.8% / 32.6%	5.9 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	31.4% / 55.7%	22.3 / 21.7
3	@BAL	34 – 20 W	8.9	69.0% / 34.4%	0.0% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.2 / 2.2	48.4% / 66.7%	25.8% / 0.0%	4.3 / 7.5	73 / 53	58.6% / 52.4%	60.3% / 47.2%	41.6% / 41.2%	7.1 / 4.3	1.4% / 1.9%	42.5% / 39.6%	27.5 / 29.4
4	NE	26 – 10 W	5.5	53.3% / 38.5%	3.3% / 5.1%	0.0% / 8.1%	7.6 / 4.4	36.0% / 48.6%	12.0% / 8.6%	3.8 / 5.3	55 / 74	50.0% / 42.9%	45.5% / 43.2%	47.7% / 37.5%	5.9 / 4.8	1.8% / 1.4%	45.5% / 47.3%	26.4 / 23.9
5	LV	32 – 40 L	-0.7	39.1% / 50.0%	6.5% / 3.1%	2.3% / 3.2%	7.2 / 10.8	55.0% / 62.9%	25.0% / 11.4%	4.0 / 4.1	66 / 67	44.0% / 59.2%	43.9% / 56.7%	50.4% / 62.9%	6.3 / 7.3	0.0% / 0.0%	30.3% / 52.2%	25.8 / 29.8
6	@BUF	26 – 17 W	3.6	59.3% / 44.4%	3.7% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.7%	8.2 / 4.5	67.4% / 56.5%	17.4% / 17.4%	5.3 / 3.7	73 / 50	65.5% / 51.2%	64.4% / 50.0%	44.8% / 21.8%	6.4 / 4.1	1.4% / 0.0%	63.0% / 46.0%	21.8 / 27.4
7	@DEN	43 – 16 W	13.9	51.7% / 37.2%	13.8% / 7.0%	0.0% / 5.0%	6.4 / 5.4	36.4% / 66.7%	18.2% / 15.2%	4.6 / 5.4	51 / 76	56.1% / 55.0%	45.1% / 50.0%	50.0% / 38.0%	5.6 / 5.4	2.0% / 2.6%	43.1% / 43.4%	43.1 / 25.1
8	NYJ	35 – 9 W	13.1	63.8% / 35.5%	0.0% / 3.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.5 / 4.1	40.0% / 52.0%	30.0% / 12.0%	2.5 / 3.7	67 / 56	58.8% / 48.8%	56.7% / 42.9%	38.7% / 12.2%	7.4 / 3.9	0.0% / 1.8%	29.9% / 44.6%	28.8 / 25.5
9	CAR	33 – 31 W	-1.0	54.3% / 48.1%	2.2% / 3.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 6.4	50.0% / 54.2%	33.3% / 16.7%	2.5 / 4.3	58 / 76	52.2% / 50.0%	53.4% / 50.0%	52.9% / 37.5%	6.8 / 5.7	1.7% / 0.0%	20.7% / 31.6%	36.2 / 24.9
11	@LV	35 – 31 W	-1.6	67.4% / 67.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	2.2% / 3.2%	7.7 / 8.9	63.0% / 42.3%	14.8% / 15.4%	4.0 / 3.4	73 / 57	68.3% / 55.3%	65.8% / 56.1%	19.3% / 36.3%	6.3 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	37.0% / 45.6%	22.4 / 25.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NO	23 – 34 L	-6.1	46.2% / 40.6%	7.7% / 3.1%	5.6% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.9	50.0% / 44.1%	23.1% / 32.4%	3.3 / 2.4	65 / 66	49.0% / 46.9%	47.7% / 42.4%	39.0% / 35.8%	4.8 / 4.1	1.5% / 0.0%	40.0% / 51.5%	18.1 / 41.8
2	CAR	31 – 17 W	12.1	40.0% / 53.2%	0.0% / 10.6%	2.9% / 4.8%	6.2 / 7.2	59.1% / 58.3%	27.3% / 12.5%	5.5 / 3.6	57 / 71	47.8% / 55.2%	47.4% / 54.9%	53.1% / 24.6%	5.9 / 6.0	1.8% / 2.8%	38.6% / 33.8%	37.4 / 26.3
3	@DEN	28 – 10 W	12.6	45.0% / 35.6%	5.0% / 13.3%	0.0% / 5.1%	7.1 / 4.1	52.0% / 35.7%	24.0% / 28.6%	2.7 / 3.0	65 / 59	48.9% / 36.4%	47.7% / 35.6%	42.2% / 34.1%	5.4 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	38.5% / 23.7%	36.9 / 21.5
4	LAC	38 – 31 W	-4.0	54.3% / 40.7%	0.0% / 7.4%	2.2% / 4.0%	8.0 / 10.3	44.4% / 26.1%	14.8% / 34.8%	4.3 / 2.0	73 / 50	53.3% / 31.6%	50.7% / 34.0%	45.5% / 50.6%	6.6 / 6.5	0.0% / 2.0%	37.0% / 46.0%	35.3 / 22.1
5	@CHI	19 – 20 L	3.6	29.5% / 46.7%	6.8% / 6.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	5.3 / 4.6	55.0% / 28.6%	15.0% / 7.1%	5.3 / 2.5	64 / 59	40.4% / 45.8%	37.5% / 42.4%	40.1% / 20.2%	5.3 / 4.1	1.6% / 0.0%	31.3% / 23.7%	27.3 / 35.0
6	GB	38 – 10 W	13.0	46.4% / 35.0%	0.0% / 12.5%	0.0% / 5.7%	5.9 / 2.7	45.7% / 38.1%	8.6% / 42.9%	4.5 / 4.5	63 / 61	49.0% / 34.1%	46.0% / 36.1%	42.3% / 32.3%	5.1 / 3.3	0.0% / 0.0%	55.6% / 34.4%	32.9 / 23.6
7	@LV	45 – 20 W	5.4	57.8% / 51.3%	0.0% / 7.7%	0.0% / 2.8%	8.2 / 6.9	44.0% / 45.8%	36.0% / 25.0%	3.4 / 3.2	70 / 63	52.7% / 52.1%	52.9% / 49.2%	43.6% / 46.7%	6.5 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	35.7% / 38.1%	33.0 / 24.7
8	@NYG	25 – 23 W	0.7	0.0% / 46.7%	0.0% / 6.7%	0.0% / 4.8%	0.0 / 5.7	0.0% / 54.2%	0.0% / 12.5%	0.0 / 4.2	0 / 69	0.0% / 50.9%	0.0% / 49.3%	0.0% / 26.1%	0.0 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 34.8%	0.0 / 0.0
9	NO	3 – 38 L	-23.8	34.1% / 63.9%	7.3% / 2.8%	7.9% / 0.0%	4.5 / 7.8	20.0% / 40.5%	40.0% / 18.9%	1.6 / 3.7	46 / 73	42.4% / 51.9%	32.6% / 52.1%	32.0% / 47.6%	4.2 / 5.8	0.0% / 2.7%	10.9% / 50.7%	27.0 / 36.9
10	@CAR	46 – 23 W	3.1	55.0% / 35.5%	2.5% / 9.7%	0.0% / 3.6%	8.4 / 3.9	48.6% / 62.5%	18.9% / 12.5%	5.7 / 4.1	77 / 47	50.0% / 54.3%	51.9% / 44.7%	51.5% / 38.5%	7.1 / 4.0	1.3% / 0.0%	48.1% / 34.0%	36.0 / 34.6
11	LA	24 – 27 L	-2.4	42.9% / 60.8%	2.0% / 0.0%	4.2% / 3.9%	4.3 / 7.4	44.4% / 20.0%	22.2% / 50.0%	2.3 / 1.9	67 / 71	42.3% / 49.1%	43.3% / 49.3%	0.0% / 34.9%	3.7 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	26.9% / 28.2%	32.4 / 29.3

Kansas City Chiefs @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Nov 29

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis