Kansas City Chiefs @

New Orleans Saints

Sun, Dec 20
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 365
Odds: New Orleans Saints +3, Total: 52.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – NEW ORLEANS (+3) over Kansas City

Lean – Over (52.5)

New Orleans will have Drew Brees back at the helm on Sunday, which is certainly the right decision so long as he’s healthy enough to be close to his usual self. The Saints only exceeded 24 points once with Taysom Hill as the starter and that was against a Denver team playing a practice squad wide receiver at quarterback, which helped immensely with field position for the Saints’ offense. New Orleans’ offense scored more than 24 points in all but one of Brees’ nine starts before his broken ribs. However, Brees could run into trouble this week because Saint guards Andrus Peat and Cesar Ruiz rank 48th and 50th respectively in pass blocking efficiency out of 57 qualifying guards and Chiefs’ DT Chris Jones has 50 pressures (4th). Brees will need to get the ball out of his hand quickly and I expect Alvin Kamara to be featured. Kamara averaged 2.78 yards per route run during the first 10 weeks but only 1.06 yards per route run the last four games with Hill. Kansas City’s defense is surrendering 6.8 yards per target to opposing running backs, so I’m guessing Sean Payton plans on having Kamara as a bigger part of the pass game.

Last week, some of Patrick Mahomes turnover luck regressed as he threw three interceptions. However, Mahomes still played well, averaging 9.6 yppp (despite taking a 30 yard sack) and completing 7 of his 13 passes 10+ yards downfield for 192 yards (four of those six incompletions were dropped). However, New Orleans will be the most challenging test that Mahomes has faced this season. The Chiefs could be down to their third-string right tackle Yasir Durant, who would be lined up across from Pro Bowl edge rusher Cameron Jordan. Travis Kelce is averaging 2.57 yards per route run, which is best among tight ends and ranks 5th in the NFL including wide receivers, but the Saints are conceding just 5.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends.

Our model favors the Chiefs by only 1.7 points, with a predicted total of 54.4 points, and Sean Payton is 44-21-2 ATS in his coach career as an underdog and 21-3 ATS in regular season home games against an opponent with a win percentage of .700 or higher.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chiefs
  • Saints
KC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.3 37.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 56.2% 46.7%
  • Sack Rate 3.8% 4.7%
  • Int Rate 1.0% 3.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.4% 20.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 40.5% 34.2%
  • NYPP 7.8 6.2



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.0 27.5
  • RB YPR 4.1 4.5
  • Stuff Rate 21.7% 12.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.3% 54.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.6% 34.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.7




Game

  • All Snaps 65.3 64.5
  • Early Down Succ 55.7% 52.7%
  • Succ Rate 53.7% 50.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.7% 36.2%
  • Yards Per Play 6.6 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.0 28.1
  • Run Ratio 38.2% 42.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.4 25.4
  • Game Control 4.8 -4.8
 
  • Points 31.0 21.6
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