Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Kansas City Team Total Under (28)

Lean – MINNESOTA (+3.5) over Kansas City

· Patrick Mahomes finished top 3 in yards per attempt against the blitz in his first three seasons as a starter. Then opposing defenses responded by sending just a 15.6% blitz rate in 2021, by far the lowest at any quarterback. Justin Herbert was 2nd-lowest in 2021 at 23.1%.

· Defensive coordinators sent the blitz on 28.1% of Mahomes’ dropbacks last year once WR Tyreek Hill left and Mahomes threw for fewer yards per attempt versus the blitz than a standard pass rush for the first season of his career.

· Kansas City’s wide receivers without Hill are once again finding it difficult to separate early in the down and Mahomes is averaging 7.3 ypa against the blitz (14th).

· Brian Flores Vikings’ defense has a league-high 61.3% blitz rate and Mahomes will have to get the ball out quickly which he hasn’t been doing to this point in the season.

· Mahomes is averaging 2.96 seconds to throw (7th-longest) and has scrambled on a career-high 10% of his dropbacks this year because his receivers are not separating.

· Travis Kelce is averaging 0.37 EPA/target (5th) but the All-Pro will be limited as Minnesota’s defense is conceding only a 40% success rate to tight ends (7th).

· The Vikings’ defense has been better than expected so far under Brian Flores. Minnesota is allowing 5.0 yppl (10th) and they just got back a crucial piece last week.

· Vikings’ edge rusher Marcus Davenport notched a sack in his first game of the season against the Panthers and he was Minnesota’s biggest free agent signing in the offseason after generating a 13.3% pressure rate last year in New Orleans.

· The Vikings’ other edge defender Danielle Hunter has 5.0 sacks (5th) and he will line up across from RT Jawaan Taylor, who leads the NFL with 9 penalties.

· Chiefs DT Chris Jones has 3.5 sacks in 3 games, and he’ll likely take down Kirk Cousins this week. Minnesota RG Ed Ingram ranks 5th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Vikings RT Brian O’Neill ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will contain edge rusher George Karlaftis, who has 20 pressures (7th).

· WR Justin Jefferson is averaging 2.72 adjusted yards per route run (3rd) and we anticipate that he’ll be shadowed on Sunday by Kansas City CB L’Jarius Sneed, who conceded only 2 receptions for 20 yards on 6 targets to reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year WR Garrett Wilson in shadow coverage last week.

· Cousins will instead look to TJ Hockenson, who is gaining 1.45 yards per route run (8th). The Chiefs are surrendering a 62% success rate to tight ends (26th).

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 2.6 with a predicted total of 48.9. The value on the side and total are due to projecting Kansas City’s offense at just25.8 points.

The Kanas City Team Total Under 28.5 (-115) is a 1-Star Best Bet at 28 -115 or better.