Game Analysis
Lean – LA RAMS (-3.5) over Kansas City
Lean – Under (63)
The Rams spent this week in Colorado preparing for a high-altitude game in Mexico City following the same line of logic as the Patriots, who destroyed the Raiders 33-8 last year south of the border. However, this game will be now be played in Los Angeles as field conditions at Estadio Azteca were deemed unplayable. This game should be exciting to watch regardless of where it is played. Let’s take a look at the match-up between the teams sharing the league’s best record at 9-1.
The Rams wide receivers get 69% of the team targets, the 2nd-highest share in the league, but targeting wide receivers isn’t necessarily the best strategy versus Kansas City. The Chiefs concede just 6.9 yards per target to opposing wide receivers (2nd-fewest) but have been vulnerable to tight ends and running backs without S Eric Berry and LB Derrick Johnson this season. Furthermore, the Los Angeles wide receiving corps will be without Cooper Kupp, who’s adding 0.1 more expected points per target than the other Rams receivers in 2018. Some will speculate Kupp’s success is due to Sean McVay scheming him open, but it’s worth noting Josh Reynolds has -2 receiving yards from 31 routes in the slot and Kupp’s absence may be an issue for this offense. As odd as it sounds, the Rams passing attack doesn’t match up favorably with the Chiefs this week and I expect Todd Gurley to be featured heavily against Kansas City’s last-ranked rush defense.
The Rams defense ranked 13th in success rate allowed through the first 3 weeks of the season, but rank just 26th since losing elite CB Aqib Talib. Former Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters is surrendering 1.85 yards per cover snap (3rd-worst) and will line up across from former Rams wide receiver Sammy Watkins. Kareem Hunt has avoided 41 tackles on runs this season, 8 more than anyone else in the league, and I expect him to be featured heavily against the Rams 29th-rated rush defense that just allowed 273 yards on the ground last week.
This is the highest posted total in NFL history and of the 24 totals of at least 57 points since 2000, the over is 17-6-1. However, our model projects a fair total of 61.4 points and there’s reason to believe both teams will utilize their ground games on Monday night, which eats up the clock and reduces yards per play. I will lean under. Our model favors the Rams by 4.5 points and they apply to a 70-23-3 ATS Monday night home team situation, so I’ll also lean with Los Angeles.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.5
42.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
58.7%
47.2%
-
Sack Rate
5.0%
7.9%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.7%
21.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
51.2%
43.3%
-
NYPP
9.1
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.5
24.2
-
RB YPR
4.5
4.8
-
Stuff Rate
20.4%
17.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.5%
58.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
51.3%
41.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
60.0
66.4
-
Early Down Succ
55.5%
52.4%
-
Succ Rate
54.1%
52.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
51.9%
43.8%
-
Yards Per Play
7.1
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.2%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
27.8
-
Run Ratio
42.6%
36.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.9
24.3
-
Game Control
8.3
-8.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.5
34.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.8%
45.3%
-
Sack Rate
5.8%
8.1%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
2.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.6%
19.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
47.3%
51.8%
-
NYPP
8.9
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.7
23.8
-
RB YPR
4.8
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
14.0%
19.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
54.1%
50.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.9%
42.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
65.2
58.3
-
Early Down Succ
58.6%
48.4%
-
Succ Rate
54.5%
47.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.8%
49.7%
-
Yards Per Play
7.0
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.1%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
30.1
-
Run Ratio
46.8%
41.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.0
25.3
-
Game Control
4.3
-4.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LAC |
38 – 28 W |
9.6 |
46.4% /
55.8% |
3.6% /
1.9% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
9.1 /
8.0 |
59.3% /
59.1% |
25.9% /
18.2% |
3.9 /
5.6 |
55 /
74 |
55.6% /
61.3% |
52.7% /
56.8% |
66.0% /
45.1% |
6.6 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
49.1% /
29.7% |
29.1 /
20.1 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
42 – 37 W |
9.7 |
69.0% /
50.8% |
3.4% /
1.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.1 /
7.2 |
44.4% /
38.5% |
14.8% /
23.1% |
4.8 /
2.5 |
56 /
74 |
63.8% /
51.7% |
57.1% /
48.6% |
56.1% /
35.2% |
8.1 /
6.4 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
48.2% /
17.6% |
30.3 /
21.8 |
| 3 |
SF |
38 – 27 W |
13.8 |
55.0% /
44.1% |
5.0% /
11.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
6.7 |
46.7% /
51.7% |
16.7% /
24.1% |
2.6 /
6.1 |
70 /
63 |
51.9% /
50.0% |
51.4% /
47.6% |
28.2% /
42.9% |
5.5 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
46.0% |
26.8 /
22.8 |
| 4 |
@DEN |
27 – 23 W |
-1.9 |
50.0% /
32.4% |
2.2% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
6.6 /
6.1 |
66.7% /
72.7% |
14.8% /
18.2% |
5.3 /
7.2 |
73 /
59 |
59.3% /
53.3% |
56.2% /
47.5% |
48.8% /
59.7% |
6.1 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
37.3% |
30.6 /
24.2 |
| 5 |
JAC |
30 – 14 W |
14.4 |
87.0% /
73.7% |
4.3% /
13.2% |
9.1% /
12.1% |
13.0 /
10.6 |
28.1% /
70.6% |
25.0% /
5.9% |
4.0 /
5.9 |
55 /
55 |
45.5% /
48.4% |
52.7% /
72.7% |
49.3% /
49.8% |
7.7 /
9.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
58.2% /
30.9% |
21.3 /
28.3 |
| 6 |
@NE |
40 – 43 L |
-5.3 |
50.0% /
48.6% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
8.8 |
70.6% /
64.1% |
17.6% /
15.4% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
53 /
76 |
59.5% /
60.0% |
56.6% /
56.6% |
55.4% /
44.9% |
8.4 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
32.1% /
51.3% |
39.9 /
30.6 |
| 7 |
CIN |
45 – 10 W |
19.4 |
61.0% /
42.9% |
4.9% /
5.7% |
2.6% /
3.0% |
8.6 /
5.0 |
51.7% /
47.4% |
10.3% /
26.3% |
6.8 /
3.4 |
70 /
54 |
54.4% /
47.6% |
57.1% /
44.4% |
52.5% /
42.3% |
7.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
35.2% |
24.0 /
26.6 |
| 8 |
DEN |
30 – 23 W |
4.5 |
50.0% /
41.0% |
5.6% /
12.8% |
2.9% /
2.9% |
8.1 /
5.7 |
33.3% /
66.7% |
16.7% /
13.3% |
2.7 /
6.3 |
54 /
69 |
46.5% /
55.4% |
44.4% /
52.2% |
42.4% /
57.7% |
6.3 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
33.3% /
43.5% |
38.0 /
23.3 |
| 9 |
@CLE |
37 – 21 W |
10.7 |
63.6% /
46.7% |
6.1% /
4.4% |
3.2% /
2.3% |
10.9 /
6.4 |
58.3% /
56.0% |
29.2% /
24.0% |
5.8 /
4.1 |
57 /
70 |
61.7% /
51.9% |
61.4% /
50.0% |
62.1% /
26.0% |
8.8 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.1% /
35.7% |
33.3 /
21.8 |
| 10 |
ARI |
26 – 14 W |
8.0 |
54.5% /
36.4% |
15.2% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
5.1% |
6.4 /
3.8 |
45.8% /
57.7% |
33.3% /
7.7% |
5.0 /
3.7 |
57 /
70 |
56.8% /
44.2% |
50.9% /
44.3% |
58.3% /
34.1% |
5.8 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.1% /
37.1% |
36.2 /
23.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@OAK |
33 – 13 W |
1.4 |
44.1% /
48.8% |
2.9% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
6.6 /
7.3 |
55.6% /
56.5% |
3.7% /
17.4% |
5.2 /
4.1 |
61 /
64 |
54.2% /
52.8% |
49.2% /
51.6% |
39.3% /
39.2% |
6.0 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.3% /
35.9% |
27.0 /
23.5 |
| 2 |
ARI |
34 – 0 W |
14.9 |
64.7% /
21.4% |
5.9% /
3.6% |
3.1% /
3.7% |
10.1 /
3.0 |
48.5% /
33.3% |
24.2% /
13.3% |
2.7 /
3.6 |
67 /
43 |
59.2% /
23.3% |
56.7% /
25.6% |
51.9% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
3.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
34.9% |
39.1 /
19.0 |
| 3 |
LAC |
35 – 23 W |
9.0 |
59.5% /
40.6% |
2.7% /
6.3% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
9.5 /
6.7 |
62.2% /
60.0% |
10.8% /
30.0% |
4.7 /
7.1 |
74 /
52 |
62.7% /
45.9% |
60.8% /
48.1% |
45.5% /
62.9% |
7.1 /
6.8 |
1.4% /
3.8% |
50.0% /
38.5% |
22.8 /
26.6 |
| 4 |
MIN |
38 – 31 W |
3.9 |
60.0% /
51.9% |
2.9% /
7.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
13.0 /
7.3 |
57.1% /
35.3% |
14.3% /
35.3% |
4.8 /
3.2 |
56 /
71 |
68.1% /
45.3% |
58.9% /
47.9% |
55.7% /
38.8% |
9.9 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
37.5% /
23.9% |
26.6 /
27.2 |
| 5 |
@SEA |
33 – 31 W |
-1.0 |
83.3% /
60.0% |
4.2% /
13.3% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
13.0 /
12.2 |
40.6% /
53.1% |
15.6% /
18.8% |
4.9 /
5.9 |
56 /
47 |
56.9% /
44.2% |
58.9% /
55.3% |
49.1% /
66.5% |
8.4 /
7.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.1% /
68.1% |
33.7 /
26.6 |
| 6 |
@DEN |
23 – 20 W |
8.2 |
30.3% /
48.8% |
15.2% /
4.7% |
3.6% /
2.4% |
5.3 /
6.9 |
68.3% /
33.3% |
2.4% /
16.7% |
6.6 /
3.4 |
74 /
61 |
55.8% /
50.0% |
51.4% /
44.3% |
53.8% /
48.0% |
6.0 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.4% /
29.5% |
28.5 /
27.0 |
| 7 |
@SF |
39 – 10 W |
16.0 |
53.8% /
29.4% |
7.7% /
20.6% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
7.1 /
3.6 |
57.9% /
62.5% |
10.5% /
16.7% |
3.9 /
4.5 |
64 /
58 |
67.4% /
47.8% |
56.3% /
43.1% |
37.1% /
68.9% |
5.2 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
59.4% /
41.4% |
40.8 /
26.7 |
| 8 |
GB |
29 – 27 W |
-2.6 |
43.9% /
45.5% |
12.2% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
7.7 |
42.9% /
63.2% |
28.6% /
21.1% |
3.9 /
5.6 |
76 /
52 |
43.6% /
58.1% |
43.4% /
51.9% |
51.3% /
69.4% |
5.5 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
46.1% /
36.5% |
31.7 /
21.1 |
| 9 |
@NO |
35 – 45 L |
-6.9 |
55.0% /
58.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
9.6 |
36.8% /
44.4% |
21.1% /
11.1% |
4.8 /
4.0 |
59 /
72 |
53.1% /
51.9% |
49.2% /
51.4% |
48.0% /
36.6% |
8.2 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
32.2% /
50.0% |
30.0 /
31.4 |
| 10 |
SEA |
36 – 31 W |
0.6 |
53.7% /
48.3% |
4.9% /
13.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
4.9 |
70.8% /
64.7% |
8.3% /
14.7% |
6.3 /
8.0 |
65 /
63 |
65.4% /
64.2% |
60.0% /
57.1% |
36.7% /
66.7% |
7.0 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
36.9% /
54.0% |
30.2 /
24.1 |
Kansas City Chiefs
@ 
Los Angeles Rams