Kansas City Chiefs @

Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Sep 20
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 285
Odds: Los Angeles Chargers +8.5, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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Lean – LA CHARGERS (+8.5) over Kansas City

Kansas City’s offense put up 34 points against the Texans without even unleashing their deep passing game. Patrick Mahomes averaged 2.17 seconds to throw Week 1, which was the quickest time to throw of his career, including playoffs, and his 5.6 air yards per attempt was a career low.

Mahomes is a full yards per pass play lower than his career average in 4 games against the Chargers largely because safety Derwin James takes away easy throws in the middle of the field, particularly to Travis Kelce. However, James will not be available on Sunday, so I expect Mahomes to play better than he has versus the Chargers. Joey Bosa had a sack and 7 total pressures last week, but the edge rusher will likely be slowed down by excellent RT Mitchell Schwartz, who surrendered his first sack since week 15 of 2018 last week.

Rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire broke seven tackles on 25 carries in his debut for the Chiefs, averaging 4.2 yards after contact per attempt, and led the NFL in rush yards over expectation based on the blocking he received, so Kansas City once again has a dynamic and multi-faceted attack.

Tyrod Taylor was second in average air yards per attempt last week and I expect the jump balls downfield to Mike Williams will continue with both Kansas City starting CBs, Bashaud Breeland and Charvarius Ward, unavailable. However, Taylor might not have much time in the pocket with interior defender Chris Jones (2 sacks in week 1) exploiting a Los Angeles offensive line potentially missing its starting center (Pouncey) and right guard (Turner).

The look ahead line for this game before week 1 was Chiefs -6.5 but it has moved through the key number of 7 and closer to our model, which makes Kansas City a 7.8-point favorite, with a predicted total of 47.4 points. I think the Chiefs will be a very popular teaser leg and survivor pool pick this week, but we saw last Sunday the risk of taking a divisional road favorite with Indianapolis losing in Jacksonville and Philly losing at Washington. Since 2000, divisional road favorites of more than a touchdown, not off a bye, are just 42-58 ATS (42%) and the Chargers apply to an early season 55-17-4 ATS home dog situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chiefs
  • Chargers
KC
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.5 35.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 54.2% 53.5%
  • Sack Rate 2.6% 8.4%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 3.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 6.5% 22.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 16.6% 37.0%
  • NYPP 6.1 7.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.0 33.0
  • RB YPR 4.7 4.7
  • Stuff Rate 14.8% 11.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.8% 61.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 51.9% 27.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.3 4.8




Game

  • All Snaps 68.5 68.5
  • Early Down Succ 50.5% 60.7%
  • Succ Rate 51.2% 57.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 30.4% 33.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.7 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 27.9
  • Run Ratio 41.1% 46.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.8 22.0
  • Game Control 1.3 -1.3
 
  • Points 28.5 20.0
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