Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – LA Chargers (+5) over Kansas City (in Mexico City)

Last week, Patrick Mahomes threw 62% of his attempts in under 2.5 seconds (career-high) in an attempt to protect himself in the first game back from injury. Mahomes is at his best when he can extend plays and improvise, which I expect him to do more of this week after saying this is the best he’s felt since going into week 1. However, Kansas City’s top two receivers are facing difficult matchups. Tyreek Hill leads the NFL with 3.05 yards per route run but he will be limited by speedy nickelback Desmond King and cornerback Casey Hayward, who is conceding only 0.67 yards per cover snap (2nd). Travis Kelce leads all tight ends with 743 receiving yards but the Chargers rank 3rd against opposing tight ends according to our metrics. Kansas City’s right tackle Mitchell Schwartz missed the first snaps of his career last week but should be back out there on Monday night. Schwartz ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency but left tackle Eric Fisher is in jeopardy of missing his 9th-straight game and Chargers’ edge defenders Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are both ranked in the top 15 of pass rushing efficiency. Schwartz’s availability will be important to slow down this pass rush but he can only block one of the Chargers’ great pass-rushers.

Philip Rivers targets his running backs on 27.7% of passes (4th-highest) and Austin Ekeler is gaining 2.51 yards per route run (1st). Ekeler is likely to be featured against a Kansas City defense that is allowing 7.6 yards per target to opposing running backs (30th). Meanwhile, Melvin Gordon will be a threat on the ground versus a Chiefs rush defense ranked 28th. The Chargers rank last in pass blocking efficiency, but Kansas City’s defense is producing a pass rush win rate of just 36% (28th) and they may not be able to exploit the Bolts in the trenches.

Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will mostly be neutralized by this Los Angeles secondary while the Chargers’ running back duo should be dominant in their matchup against the Chiefs’ defense. Our model favors the Chiefs by 3.1 points, with a predicted total of 51.7 points. There is now some line value to go with the Chargers’ matchup advantage.

Team Stats
Game Log

Chiefs
Chargers

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.1 37.3
Succ Pass Plays 51.2% 45.0%
Sack Rate 4.4% 8.1%
Int Rate 0.3% 1.7%
Deep Pass Rate 22.8% 21.3%
Big Pass Yards 47.6% 42.9%
NYPP 7.8 6.0

Rush

Rush Plays 21.4 28.8
RB YPR 4.1 5.1
Stuff Rate 24.1% 14.0%
Succ Rush Plays 50.4% 55.5%
Big Rush Yards 44.3% 39.6%
Yards Per Rush 4.3 5.2

Game

All Snaps 61.5 66.1
Early Down Succ 52.7% 53.2%
Succ Rate 50.6% 50.0%
Big Yards Rate 48.4% 42.9%
Yards Per Play 6.5 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.2 28.4
Run Ratio 34.6% 43.0%
Starting Field Pos 28.7 27.6
Game Control 3.8 -3.8

Points 28.4 23.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@JAC	40 – 26 W	11.7	58.8% / 52.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	0.0% / 3.0%	11.1 / 10.2	57.7% / 43.8%	26.9% / 12.5%	4.3 / 5.1	60 / 50	62.5% / 50.0%	58.3% / 50.0%	62.3% / 55.4%	8.2 / 8.6	0.0% / 2.0%	43.3% / 32.0%	38.4 / 23.8
2	@OAK	28 – 10 W	8.3	56.5% / 46.3%	4.3% / 7.3%	0.0% / 5.3%	9.4 / 4.3	36.4% / 52.6%	36.4% / 26.3%	1.4 / 6.8	68 / 60	49.1% / 48.9%	50.0% / 48.3%	62.3% / 38.4%	6.8 / 5.1	1.5% / 0.0%	32.4% / 31.7%	26.2 / 25.3
3	BAL	33 – 28 W	7.1	57.9% / 34.8%	2.6% / 6.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.6 / 5.4	46.2% / 71.9%	26.9% / 6.3%	5.4 / 6.3	64 / 78	55.8% / 50.8%	53.1% / 50.0%	49.5% / 37.6%	7.9 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	40.6% / 41.0%	25.5 / 26.0
4	@DET	34 – 30 W	-1.3	50.0% / 50.0%	0.0% / 10.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 6.9	60.0% / 65.7%	24.0% / 20.0%	4.9 / 5.3	67 / 73	54.4% / 61.7%	53.7% / 57.5%	37.2% / 52.3%	6.5 / 6.1	4.5% / 2.7%	37.3% / 47.9%	22.5 / 33.3
5	IND	13 – 19 L	-1.9	39.5% / 48.3%	9.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.4%	6.7 / 5.2	42.9% / 68.9%	35.7% / 11.1%	2.6 / 4.0	57 / 74	42.9% / 67.9%	40.4% / 60.8%	53.1% / 22.4%	5.7 / 4.5	1.8% / 0.0%	24.6% / 60.8%	25.1 / 32.0
6	HOU	24 – 31 L	2.6	44.4% / 59.5%	2.8% / 0.0%	2.9% / 4.8%	7.1 / 6.7	45.5% / 56.1%	18.2% / 12.2%	4.8 / 4.7	47 / 83	44.7% / 62.1%	44.7% / 57.8%	42.1% / 25.2%	6.6 / 5.7	2.1% / 1.2%	23.4% / 49.4%	27.2 / 32.4
7	@DEN	30 – 6 W	11.6	51.6% / 25.6%	3.2% / 20.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.2 / 3.1	33.3% / 42.9%	25.9% / 14.3%	3.0 / 3.4	58 / 64	46.3% / 37.5%	43.1% / 31.3%	43.9% / 37.6%	4.7 / 3.2	0.0% / 1.6%	46.6% / 32.8%	36.8 / 23.4
8	GB	24 – 31 L	-3.7	47.4% / 52.6%	5.3% / 13.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 6.7	75.0% / 57.7%	5.0% / 7.7%	4.4 / 4.5	58 / 64	57.4% / 55.1%	56.9% / 54.7%	38.6% / 48.1%	5.8 / 5.8	1.7% / 0.0%	34.5% / 40.6%	28.6 / 26.6
9	MIN	26 – 23 W	0.3	52.5% / 41.0%	12.5% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 5.4	55.6% / 25.9%	22.2% / 25.9%	8.2 / 3.6	58 / 66	60.5% / 34.0%	53.4% / 34.8%	53.6% / 40.6%	6.5 / 4.7	1.7% / 0.0%	31.0% / 40.9%	26.1 / 28.8
10	@TEN	32 – 35 L	3.6	52.8% / 39.1%	3.8% / 17.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 6.3	52.0% / 69.2%	20.0% / 3.8%	3.9 / 8.7	78 / 49	53.2% / 64.1%	52.6% / 55.1%	41.5% / 71.4%	6.8 / 7.6	1.3% / 2.0%	32.1% / 53.1%	30.3 / 24.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	IND	30 – 24 W	6.2	52.6% / 44.8%	10.5% / 6.9%	2.9% / 0.0%	8.2 / 6.0	57.1% / 66.7%	23.8% / 15.2%	6.0 / 6.2	59 / 62	52.1% / 56.3%	54.2% / 56.5%	57.9% / 38.0%	7.4 / 6.1	1.7% / 0.0%	35.6% / 53.2%	30.0 / 26.4
2	@DET	10 – 13 L	1.9	43.2% / 56.7%	2.7% / 0.0%	2.8% / 6.7%	7.8 / 8.2	52.0% / 50.0%	16.0% / 17.9%	5.5 / 3.4	62 / 58	46.9% / 56.5%	46.8% / 53.4%	55.4% / 39.8%	6.8 / 5.8	1.6% / 0.0%	40.3% / 48.3%	22.0 / 20.7
3	HOU	20 – 27 L	2.4	41.2% / 58.3%	9.8% / 5.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 9.4	38.9% / 26.3%	16.7% / 26.3%	4.1 / 2.1	69 / 55	41.2% / 45.5%	40.6% / 47.3%	42.6% / 57.7%	5.3 / 6.8	1.4% / 1.8%	26.1% / 34.5%	27.7 / 24.2
4	@MIA	30 – 10 W	6.4	71.9% / 48.3%	3.1% / 17.2%	0.0% / 4.2%	9.7 / 5.6	39.4% / 55.6%	21.2% / 22.2%	2.4 / 4.0	65 / 47	57.1% / 52.8%	55.4% / 51.1%	23.1% / 34.3%	6.0 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	50.8% / 38.3%	31.8 / 25.0
5	DEN	13 – 20 L	-12.5	41.7% / 34.8%	0.0% / 13.0%	4.2% / 5.0%	4.4 / 6.9	31.3% / 50.0%	43.8% / 15.6%	2.2 / 6.0	64 / 55	42.9% / 48.8%	39.1% / 43.6%	8.1% / 60.6%	3.8 / 6.4	1.6% / 1.8%	25.0% / 58.2%	31.3 / 28.9
6	PIT	17 – 24 L	-16.2	44.4% / 55.0%	2.2% / 0.0%	4.5% / 5.0%	7.0 / 6.6	21.4% / 36.1%	35.7% / 27.8%	2.3 / 3.4	59 / 56	34.0% / 36.6%	39.0% / 42.9%	24.1% / 27.0%	5.9 / 4.6	1.7% / 0.0%	23.7% / 64.3%	20.0 / 37.0
7	@TEN	20 – 23 L	-0.9	56.4% / 62.5%	2.6% / 6.3%	0.0% / 3.3%	8.4 / 9.6	23.8% / 48.3%	42.9% / 20.7%	1.9 / 3.3	60 / 61	43.8% / 57.4%	45.0% / 55.7%	35.1% / 36.5%	6.1 / 6.6	1.7% / 0.0%	35.0% / 47.5%	24.9 / 24.1
8	@CHI	17 – 16 W	-2.7	43.3% / 41.0%	3.3% / 10.3%	3.4% / 2.9%	6.5 / 5.8	16.7% / 47.4%	50.0% / 28.9%	3.0 / 4.3	42 / 77	40.6% / 45.9%	35.7% / 44.2%	35.5% / 60.1%	5.5 / 5.0	0.0% / 1.3%	28.6% / 49.4%	34.0 / 30.7
9	GB	26 – 11 W	9.8	60.0% / 42.1%	6.7% / 7.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 3.7	63.2% / 63.6%	13.2% / 9.1%	4.2 / 4.1	68 / 49	66.7% / 55.3%	61.8% / 46.9%	37.1% / 0.0%	6.5 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	55.9% / 22.4%	29.7 / 25.8
10	@OAK	24 – 26 L	-4.0	41.7% / 47.1%	13.9% / 8.8%	9.7% / 0.0%	4.7 / 5.9	63.3% / 52.4%	16.7% / 23.8%	4.9 / 3.7	66 / 55	55.6% / 52.4%	51.5% / 49.1%	58.1% / 16.2%	4.8 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	45.5% / 38.2%	25.2 / 33.0

Kansas City Chiefs @

Los Angeles Chargers

Mon, Nov 18

5:15 PM Pacific

Game Analysis