Game Analysis

Kansas City (-10) vs LAS VEGAS

• Aidan O’Connell now is expected to miss four to six weeks with a broken thumb so Gardner Minshew will be the starter again on Sunday. Minshew is a slight upgrade on O’Connell.
• Las Vegas WR Jakobi Meyers should suit up this week and he is averaging 0.43 EPA/target (14th). However, Meyers might struggle in his first game from an ankle injury across from Kansas City cornerback Trent McDuffie, who conceded only 1 reception for 15 yards on 4 targets in man coverage last week. The Chiefs defense will be without CB Jaylen Watson, who suffered a fractured ankle in Sunday’s win.
• Kansas City’s defense is allowing a 60% success rate to opposing tight ends (26th) and they will be tested by TE Brock Bowers, whose 27 receptions over the past three games is the most for a rookie tight end in NFL history.
• Raiders RG Dylan Parham ranks 11th in pass-blocking efficiency but he could be sidelined for another game. That would leave backup guard Jordan Meredith and rookie right tackle DJ Glaze to line up across from edge rusher George Karlaftis and interior defender Chris Jones. Karlaftis has 24 pressures (18th) and Jones ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency.
• Patrick Mahomes is averaging a career low 0.09 EPA/play and it would be even worse if he wasn’t picking up a first down on a league-high 63% of his scrambles.
• The Chiefs traded for WR DeAndre Hopkins but it seems unlikely he’ll get more than 15 routes in his first game.
• Kansas City right tackle Jawaan Taylor ranks 15th in pass-blocking efficiency and he will battle with edge rusher Maxx Crosby, whose 33.5 sacks since the start of the 2022 season (2nd).
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 9.4 points, with a predicted total of 41.3 points, and Kansas City is 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 as a road favorite of 4 points or more following a win. And this does seem like a flat spot after last week’s Super Bowl rematch with the 49ers.