Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (53) – LAS VEGAS vs Kansas City

Lean – LAS VEGAS (+9)

· Las Vegas averaged 7.6 yppl last week in Jarrett Stidham’s first start against San Francisco’s defense.

· Stidham leads all quarterbacks with at least 50 plays this season in completion percentage over expectation (+7.8%) which illustrates some of the ridiculous out of structure throws Stidham completed against the 49ers. I doubt Stidham will be able to complete as many unlikely passes in this game.

· Kansas City’s defense is allowing only a 40% success rate in the second half of this season (2nd) and they will bring Stidham back down to earth.

· We have upgraded Stidham after last week but still have him as a slight downgrade versus Derek Carr. However, this total would’ve been too high even if Carr was starting. The market was 51.5 when Las Vegas traveled to Arrowhead Stadium in week 5 with hardly any wind and no rain. Allegiant Stadium has a grass surface so conditions will not be much different.

· The interior of the Raiders offensive line is surrendering 7.3 pressures per game, and they will act as a turnstile for DT Chris Jones, who leads all interior defenders with 13.0 sacks.

· Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed ranks 14th in coverage grade by PFF and he will limit WR Davante Adams, who is gaining 2.51 yards per route run (5th).

· Maxx Crosby has 76 pressures (4th) and he will be in Patrick Mahomes’ lap all afternoon as Kansas City RT Andrew Wylie has surrendered 8 sacks this year, the 4th-most among tackles.

· Travis Kelce leads all tight ends averaging 0.48 EPA/target, but the Las Vegas defense can contain tight ends relatively well. The Raiders are conceding 6.7 yards per target to TEs (12th) and Kelce had only 25 yards receiving in the last game between these teams.

· Las Vegas nickelback Tyler Hall is allowing only 0.35 yards per cover snap in the slot and he will limit JuJu Smith-Schuster, whose 65% success rate ranks 2nd in the NFL.

· Our model favors the Chiefs by 7.3 points with a predicted total of 49.2.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 51.5 points or higher.