Kansas City Chiefs @

Las Vegas Raiders

Sun, Nov 22
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 471
Odds: Las Vegas Raiders +7, Total: 56.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Kansas City (-7) over LAS VEGAS

Strong Opinion – KC 1st-Half Team Total Over 16.5

Despite averaging nearly 32 points per game, we think Kansas City’s offense is underrated because they have faced difficult weather most of the season. The wind has been above 10 mph in every Chiefs game since week 4, except in Buffalo where we saw the rain suppress scoring. Sunday night in Las Vegas is setting up to be the second-best conditions for points that Kansas City has seen all year.

Patrick Mahomes has thrown 25 touchdowns, just one interception, and he’s checked down on just 3% of his attempts this season. Andy Reid has had an extra week to prepare for one of the least talented secondaries in the NFL that is only getting worse with Damon Arnette back on the field. The rookie cornerback is surrendering 1.75 yards per cover snap this year. Seven players on the Las Vegas defense were not able to practice all week and Kansas City’s offense has a shot to put up 40 points on Sunday night.

Derek Carr had a better game last week than his 6.2 yppp implies. Henry Ruggs and Darren Waller both dropped 30+ air yard passes that hit them in the hands. Nelson Agholor also dropped a potential 6-yard touchdown. Carr is looking downfield more often this season and has a 9.2-yard average depth of target since Ruggs returned in week 5, tied for 9th among qualifying quarterbacks. Hunter Renfrow is averaging more than 2 yards per route run but he will be limited on the inside by All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu.

Our model favors the Chiefs by 9.2 points, with a predicted total of 60.4 points. Kansas City’s first half team total is providing value because the Chiefs are once again averaging more points in the first half than the second half due to Andy Reid’s excellent scripted plays, which has a good chance to be even more effective off a bye. Kansas City’s 1st-Half Team Total over 16.5 or less is a Strong Opinion. The alternate play, if you don’t have team-totals, is the game over 56.5 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Chiefs
  • Raiders


  • Pass Plays 38.7 36.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 55.4% 43.9%
  • Sack Rate 3.8% 5.7%
  • Int Rate 0.3% 2.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.2% 19.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 39.7% 32.2%
  • NYPP 7.6 5.9


  • Rush Plays 25.8 29.1
  • RB YPR 4.0 4.5
  • Stuff Rate 21.3% 11.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 48.3% 58.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.5% 33.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 4.8


  • All Snaps 64.4 65.4
  • Early Down Succ 54.0% 53.4%
  • Succ Rate 52.4% 50.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.0% 35.2%
  • Yards Per Play 6.3 5.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.8 28.4
  • Run Ratio 39.7% 44.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.9 25.6
  • Game Control 5.1 -5.1
  • Points 31.8 20.3
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